898
FXUS65 KCYS 172116
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
316 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR PM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH SOME
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AT THE MID-LEVELS. THERE'S MORE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED
VORT-MAX THAT WOULD HELP FURTHER SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT STORMS AS
IT AMPLIFIES THE LIFTING OF THE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THUNDERSTORMS COLLIDE WITH THE DRYLINE. SPC DID PLACE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA RIGHT ABOUT THE LOCATION WHERE THE DRYLINE MAY
RETREAT TO. DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AXIS THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE MEAN TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND
TRANSPORT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PERIODIC RIPPLES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER MEAGER WITH THE DRYLINE
LARGELY RETREATING TO THE EAST. GIVEN THIS SETUP THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM RELATED HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND 90S FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH PORTIONS OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE POSSIBLY ECLIPSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE HEATRISK, SUGGESTING
POTENTIALLY ADVERSE IMPACTS TO HEAST-SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS AND
VULNERABLE GROUPS. THE FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE MURKIER
THEREAFTER, WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A COOLING TREND AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ENTERING THE PICTURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE PANHANDLE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH KCYS.
BUT THERE'S MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR THE
PANHANDLE CLEARING. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED LOOK POSSIBLE
AFTER 21Z FOR OUR WYOMING TERMINALS. WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR
KLAR AND KRWL THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE OF A
VIRGA SCENARIO. GUSTY WINDS MAYBE BE UNDERNEATH THESE SHOWERS
DUE TO THE VIRGA.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ421-422-
427.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...SPM
AVIATION...MM
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