090
FXUS65 KCYS 080000
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGELY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF DEGRADED AIR QUALITY.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE
AND EAST CENTRAL WY.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
WARM AND DRY TODAY BUT TOMORROW WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RETURN US BACK
TO A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW,
AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN NEED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY AS RH VALUES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN BEFORE WE SEE A VERY
MODEST AT BEST RECOVERY THEREAFTER. THE OTHER NOTE TO TODAY'S
WEATHER WAS THE CLOUD COVER WHICH HELPED TO LIMIT SOME OF OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CHEYENNE STRUGGLING TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES THANKS TO THIS CEILING. WITH TODAY EXPECTED TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, THIS WAS A NICE RESPITE FOR
OUR AREA, THOUGH OF COURSE THE PANHANDLE WAS NOT SO LUCKY AS
TRIPLE DIGITS ABOUND WERE PRESENT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THIS
EVENING'S FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET AND ON TRACK, WITH
ALMOST ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ZONES, AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED.
TOMORROW A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES DESCEND BACK INTO THE
70'S TO LOW 90'S. WHILE THIS WILL ALSO HELP WITH RH VALUES AND
COULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A LACK OF
SURFACE MOISTURE IS STILL GOING TO FUEL SOME CONCERNS AT LEAST
FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. WE ARE
SEEING VALUES STARTING TO SHOW BACK INTO THE THE UPPER TEENS TO
VERY LOW 20'S, SO SOME OF THESE WARNINGS MAY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE EARLY. WITH THE RETURN OF SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE ALOFT THOUGH, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN TO THE
AREA AS WELL. MOST OF THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN LIES FURTHER WEST OF OUR REGION, BUT SOME
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE SHOWING UP ON THE HREF FOR
OUR PANHANDLE ZONES AS WELL AS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF
WYOMING (CONVERSE, NIOBRARA, AND GOSHEN), WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR HAIL AND WINDS PRESENT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES PRESENT A
COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS FOR BOTH WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
BEFORE THE EVENING IS UP, SO LOOK FOR SOME THUNDER WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER TO SEVERE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
ACTIVITY WILL CREEP UP AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S UNDERNEATH THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH ALOFT. A DRY SLOT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND MIX DOWN VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL, MOST GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ONTO A MORE MOIST
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ROUGHLY A CHEYENNE TO
ALLIANCE LINE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR PRESENT AND FAIRLY GOOD DEEP MOISTURE, AT
LEAST ON THE WET SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR FORCING TO
CONTINUE LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR EVEN SUNDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, POPS ARE RETAINED FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THEIR MINIMUM ON SUNDAY WITH 700-MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +7 TO +9C, WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN THE MID
70S OR COOLER ON SUNDAY WHILE THE DRIER NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE, BUT SHOULD STILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE MORE GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, BUT THERE IS TIME FOR THIS
TO CHANGE. CIN MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S
CONVECTION.
EXPECT TO SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING TRIED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ANY SMOKE OR HAZE FROM AREA WILDFIRES IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN LOWER SURFACE VIS AT THIS TIME.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ417-418.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ419>429.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ434.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT
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