863
FXUS65 KCYS 140556
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- RAINFALL CHANGING TO SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA IS FAIRLY MARGINAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THERE, WE HAVE MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR IN THE PLACE OF
FAIRLY STRONG FORCING SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
(MAINLY SUB-SEVERE) THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREA ALREADY EXPANDING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS, BUT LIGHTNING IS PROBABLY THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
LOOK FOR A MESSY SYNOPTIC SETUP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECASTS SHOW A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED WIND
FIELD ALOFT, WITH A DECENT SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH OVER OUR HIGH PLAINS AREAS. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
AREA GENERALLY MEANS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE
COMPLEX AND FINE SCALE DYNAMICS CAN BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THUNDER BECOMING MORE LIMITED AFTER
ABOUT 9PM, TRANSITIONING TO MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE, AND WE COULD SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER ALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT THERE, MOST LIKELY AROUND THE CHADRON TO ALLIANCE AREA.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME MODELS SHOW A
WEAK SIGNATURE LOOSELY RESEMBLING A TROWAL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THEN MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL (WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN CORES THAT TAP INTO THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY REMAINING) GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. IF THIS DOESN'T MATERIALIZE THOUGH, WE MAY SEE MUCH
MORE LIMITED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POPS WERE
DROPPED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY IN CONVERSE,
NIOBRARA, GOSHEN, AND SIOUX COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FORCING SUPPORTING RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO
BE DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 10 KFT TONIGHT, WHICH MEANS THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, LOOK FOR CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE LINGERING AROUND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING.
LIMITED INSTABILITY RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING,
AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WE EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE WARMER BASED ON THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK
HEATING, SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOMEWHAT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS WYOMING,
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN, THUS ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AT LOW AND MID LEVELS, PRODUCING A DRIER DAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS WILL PRODUCE A WARMER DAY.
FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD, AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 11 CELSIUS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN AS THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD, ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH
MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND NO LONGER SHOWING THE STORM SYSTEM
REDEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN FOR KCYS, KLAR, AND MOST OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
TERMINALS INTO EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL
TERMINALS WITH OCCIASIONAL MVFR VIS AND CIGS AT KLAR, KCYS AND
POSSIBLY KSNY IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOULD END
BY 15Z FOR KCYS AND KLAR, AND NOT UNTIL 18Z TO 21Z FOR KSNY AND
KBFF.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT
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