815
FXUS65 KCYS 130000
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
ALONGSIDE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
WEAKENING AROUND SUNSET.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO FROST AND AREAS OF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY ALONGSIDE RETURNING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
WIND EVENT HAS BEEN EVERYTHING EXPECTED AS WE SEE GUSTS PEAKING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60'S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO LESSEN, BUT WE'RE STILL SEEING SPEEDS INTO THE MID 50'S AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED SPOT BACK INTO THE LOW 60'S AS OF THIS WRITING,
SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL PROCEED UNTIL IT'S 6 PM EXPIRATION
AS ANTICIPATED. WE'VE EVEN HAD SOME STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WINDS
IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL, SO OUR WINDY SEASON HAS
DEFINITELY ARRIVED.
MOVING INTO THIS EVENING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARDS,
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, LOOK
FOR NOTABLE RADIATIVE COOLING TO BRING WIDESPREAD NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF THIS UPDATE,
DON'T SEE ANY INDICATION FROM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MORNING REASONING OF WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEAR
TO AROUND FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST, AND FREEZE WARNINGS
NOT BEING NECESSARY AS A DEEP FREEZE IS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY, BUT EVEN THIS MAY STRUGGLE TO
OCCUR WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING. BUT ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING IF YOU'RE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, AND THOSE
WEST WILL SEE A HARDER FREEZE BUT THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FOR
THIS AREA THIS SEASON.
MONDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE BACK OVER AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUING TO HOVER OVER THE REGION. THIS FLOW WILL BRING BACK
OUR MOISTURE TRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WE CAN EXPECT MORE
RAIN FOR THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THIS WILL BE LACKING
SUPPORT TO PRODUCE STRONGER PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD SEE SOME NOTEWORTHY ACCUMULATIONS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT, BUT EVEN HERE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH, HARDLY A WIDESPREAD SOAKER. OTHERWISE EXPECT A COOL
FALL DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50'S TO LOW 60'S
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LONG TERM REMAINS ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HELPS TO DRIVE A STEADY WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE LATER THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 5 TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, MOST NOTABLY IN THE
NE PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE ENHANCED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONGSIDE CLEARING
SKIES FROM A DRY SLOT IN OUR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRAIN, BUT THIS
QUICKLY LEADS BACK TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES OVERTAKEN
BY ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND COOLER WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING MUCH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONGSIDE POSSIBLY ANOTHER HIGH
WIND EVENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS, SO WE'LL CONTINUE
TO WATCH AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
WINDS. AND BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER FREEZE FOR THE REGION, BUT LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG
TERM WE MAY BE RISING BACK UP IN TEMPERATURES AS A STRONGER
RIDGE MAY BE MOVING BACK IN LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALL SITES WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
RETURNING WITH MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE NEARBY SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW KRWL, KSNY, AND KAIA. CLOUD DECKS ALSO
RETURN WITH THE PRECIPITATION, STARTING SCT AND HIGH BASED AND
THEN DROPPING TO A MID LEVEL AROUND 10K FEET AND BKN.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
WYZ106>108-117>119.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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