186
FXUS65 KCYS 180502
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR
THE WIND PRONE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND SOME RAIN
AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE DOWN TO 6000 FEET.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK
INTO THE CANADIAN PROVIDENCES. THIS SHOULD START TO RELAX THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GIVE US A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS BEFORE STARTING BACK UP SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, OUR WIND PRONE AREAS MAY STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH
ALONG I-80 OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY LOOKS TO SLIGHTLY RE-TIGHTEN THE 700MB GRADIENT TO CREATE A
GUSTY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE RESULTING 700MB JET IS ONLY PROGGED
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE DECREASING
BELOW 40KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME. SO NO HIGH
WIND PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS
THE COLD FRONT DIVES MORE TO THE SOUTH THERE IS LESS MOISTURE DUE TO
THE GREATER AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FROM THE PREVIOUS DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
SO ITS A LITTLE MORE UNKNOWN IF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE
THE FURTHER SOUTH THE FRONT TRAVELS. A COLD AIRMASS WILL HANGOUT
OVER THE REGION AS THE 700MB TEMPERATURES DIVE BETWEEN -5 TO -8C
DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30'S SATURDAY NIGHT. A FREEZE
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR OUR LAST 3 REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT THERMAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE LONG TERM REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE START THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH A CALM SUNDAY TO END THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TO BRING MORE HIGH WINDS, PRECIPITATION, AND
COLD MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, A FLAT RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR US TO WARM ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AT SOME PRECIPITATION GRAZING US ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, WITH FURTHER RIDGING HOLDING ON TO END
THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN, THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WE CAN EXPECT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS,
CONTINUING FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY
LESSENING DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON ENSEMBLES AND IN HOUSE
GUIDANCE, HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK FOR OUR WIND PRONE REGIONS. MEANWHILE THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY,
BUT THE BULK OF THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST. INTO TUESDAY MORNING SKIES
WILL CLEAR, AND WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SOME LOCATIONS THAT
HAVEN'T QUITE SEEN A HARD FREEZE BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR THE
MORNING. WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THAT HOWEVER, AND HIGHS WILL
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50'S TO UPPER 60'S THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A GLANCING SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT THIS WILL BE OVERALL WEAK AND IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL TO NIL AT BEST, WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AND CLEAR
DAY ON THURSDAY TO USHER IN THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
FROM 10Z AT KCDR UNTIL 13Z AT KSNY. THIS COLD FRONT, AND THE
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT, WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR
THE 06Z TAFS. FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO KCYS BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ106-107-110-
116-117.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ019-021-055.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page