295
FXUS65 KCYS 191722
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE SWING SUNDAY TO MONDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE TO 20S AND 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. WARMER TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO THE
STRONGER, DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATER THIS MORNING, WITH
HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
TODAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF INCREASING AND
DECREASING WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z THIS EVENING,
WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL INCREASE
AND REMAIN AT AND ABOVE HIGH WIND CRITERIA, EXCEPT FOR BORDEAUX AND
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS, WHICH WILL SEE DECREASING WINDS
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN IN THESE ZONES BY 09Z
MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOSTLY SIGNAL AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND THREAT, HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEHIND THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THE COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A LARGE SWING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONT, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUE THE CWA AS A 500MB TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT TO HELP SUPPORT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION (RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS) FOR MONDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER HIGH WINDS EVENT
IN OUR TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SKIES CLEARED, WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, IF
YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY YOU WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE AS YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL EJECT
TO OUR EAST AS A WEAK 500MB RIDGE MOVES RIGHT IN ON ITS HEELS. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INDUCING AN EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME
GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES EAST JUST TO OUR SOUTH;
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS NOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
OUT OF OUR CWA. AT THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK, RIDGING WILL ONCE
AGAIN MAKE A TRIUMPHANT RETURN AND DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH REGARDS TO CIGS AND
VIS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KRWL AND KLAR TO REFLECT THIS THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BIG STORY FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
WINDS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AS GUSTS TOP OUT AROUND 40
KNOTS, WITH NEBRASKA TERMINALS HAVING SLIGHTLY CALMER WINDS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ104.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ106-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR WYZ109.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ110-116.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ
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