078
FXUS65 KCYS 192344
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
544 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE SWING SUNDAY TO MONDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE 700MB JET IS STILL GOING STRONG MIXED WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR. WINDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
GUSTING AROUND 60-65 MPH WITH A COUPLE SPOTS REACHING INTO THE LOW
70S IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. FOR OUR WIND PRONE ADJACENT AREAS WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH WITH FASTER WINDS NOT
EXPECTED. LATER ON TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PROVIDENCES. THIS WILL COMPRESS THE RIDGE WE CURRENTLY HAVE
OVER US TO SUSTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE 700MB JET. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO GIVE US SOME OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF I-
25, SO MOSTLY LIKELY IT WILL COME DOWN AS RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE, SIERRA MADRES, AND SNOWY RANGE IT
WILL BE COMING DOWN AS SNOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS IN NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES BUT BESIDES THE
MOUNTAINS NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLATTE AND GOSHEN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AFTER 14Z FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR DOWN WITH
IT DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S. MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX ENDING OUR
HIGH WIND FESTIVAL IN THE EVENING AROUND 00Z.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
500MB TROUGH EJECTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
BACK INTO THE REGION RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ACROSS THE CWA, EXPECT THIS
RIDGE TO CONTROL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
KEEPING US DRY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE, BRINGING MINIMAL IMPACTS INTO OUR CWA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS IT SLIDES EAST ON
THURSDAY, THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAY NOSE INTO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. AT THE TAIL
END OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A
TRIUMPHANT RETURN, DOMINATING WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
ROUNDING OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE
PICTURE, INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA, OVERALL, WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.
SO, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S DEGREES F,
COLDEST TEMPS WEST OF I-25 WHILE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BASK IN
THE WARMEST TEMPS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
05Z AND 09Z. EXPECT AN INITIAL SURGE IN NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 1-2 HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS EXPECTED. A BRIEF GUST EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. APPROX. 1-2 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS SHOULD
EASE FOR A FEW HOURS (EXCEPT PERHAPS KCYS) BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN MID MORNING. WIDESPREAD STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. KRWL AND KLAR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE IFR IN
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WHILE KCYS AND KCDR MAY SEE A BRIEF MVFR
PERIOD. A SHORT DROP IN CIGS/VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ104.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ106-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ109.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ110-116.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...MN
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