628
FXUS65 KCYS 030531
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1031 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, MILD, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK DUE TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, BUT MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS RETURN
BY THE END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
WINDS ARE SLOWLY EASING ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH CAUSES MSLP GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE CWA TO RELAX. THE FREQUENCY OF 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS IS DECREASING,
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WIND PRONES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS
ALOFT REMAIN STRONG WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT, CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ROGUE 60 MPH GUSTS. WINDS WILL BACK OFF OVERNIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE DISAPPEARS. CLEAR SKIES WITH CALMER WINDS TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLIER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS LOCKED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LUCKILY, HIGH WIND CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY AS MSLP GRADIENTS OVER THE WIND PRONES
REMAIN RATHER RELAXED. COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM AN INCOMING DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S CAN
BE EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT, THE DRY SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE CWA,
LEADING TO INCREASED WINDINESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND
PRONES. MSLP GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WIND PRONES. WINDS ALOFT MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
UPTICK IN HIGH WIND POTENTIAL, BUT STILL ONLY GIVES A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS OCCURRING AT ARLINGTON, BORDEAUX,
AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF ANY HIGH WIND HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, LEADING TO YET ANOTHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE LONG TERM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS ONE THING: BREEZY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY,
COOLING THE CWA A FEW DEGREES WHILE ALSO BRINGING BREEZY, BUT
NOT HIGH WIND WORTHY, GUSTS. THIS CHANGES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH AS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OUT OF OUR
REGION, BRINGING A JET THAT WILL SETTLE OVER OUR AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG WINDS WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS LIKELY. WINDS AT 700MB IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS LINGER
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH PERIODS OF LULLS IN THERE BUT SPACED CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A LONG-DURATION HIGH WIND PRODUCT MAY BE NEEDED.
IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE ALSO PAINTS THE PICTURE OF THIS HIGH WIND
EVENT FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, AND WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY
ON THIS POTENTIAL, HAVE CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE FORECAST WINDS
BY UPPING CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS, WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL JUMP IN MOISTURE,
BUT WITHOUT A STOUT FORCING MECHANISM, THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR ADJACENT PLAINS AND
VALLEYS, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS LIMITED AT BEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION TOTALS ANTICIPATED. FINALLY TEMPERATURES UNDER
THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO THE
EAST, COOLING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGING OUR HIGHS
WIDESPREAD NEAR NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD IN THE WIDESPREAD HIGH
40'S TO MID 50'S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
GOING TO RATHER LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z
THE WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AND DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO THE
LOW LEVEL JET BRING DOWN THOSE FASTER WINDS. AFTER 06Z TOMORROW
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR RANGING FROM 800FT TO 2000FT WILL THE NEXT
TAF SEGMENTS CONCERN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...MM
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