634
FXUS65 KCYS 041725
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, MILD, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEEK DUE TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
- STRONG WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
A SHALLOW 700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA REGION TODAY, COMPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PASSING WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS, BUT THE AREA WILL STAY DRY DUE TO CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SOME ISOLATED
AREAS FROM POSSIBLY REACHING THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE, HOWEVER NBM
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED BECAUSE OF THE FASTER WINDS IN OUR
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60'S WEST OF I-25
AND 70'S EAST OF I-25. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO HIT 50 MPH ALONG OUR WIND PRONE AREAS MORESO ALONG I-80 BUT
BORDEAUX STILL HAS A CHANCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START DYING OFF
IN THE EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS THE GRADIENTS
START TO RELAX.
WEDNESDAY, THE WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE IN THE
50'S AND 60'S. TOWARDS THE EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE
MORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30'S AND 40'S BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINDS TO MEET
HIGH WIND CRITERIA AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DOES PRODUCE A LITTLE
BIT OF A STRONGER JET WITH WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
THE JET MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS TO
UTILIZE THE JET EFFICIENTLY. OUR IN HOUSE ALGORITHM DOES FLOAT
BETWEEN A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR HIGH
WINDS OVER ARLINGTON. THIS DOES BOOST CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY IN MEETING
HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT PROBS CLOSER TO 60 WOULD BE BETTER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL BE ACTIVE AS WE SEE MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW
OF STRONG TO HIGH WINDS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION, ALSO COOLING US BACK DOWN FROM OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY
STARTS WITH A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY, BUT WE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA. THE REAL STORY FOR MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS STARTS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A DEEPER TROUGH SWINGS IN AND SHIFTS RIDGING
OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE TO DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40'S TO LOW 50'S, BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS WILL REMAIN
WARM AS WE SEE 50'S TO MID 60'S LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT
THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD 700MB WINDS IN THE 50 KNOT RANGE WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES BRINGING THESE SPEEDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND THE WINDS DON'T STOP AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THEN SWINGS THROUGH, CONTINUING
HIGH WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALSO FINALLY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. MEANWHILE
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET OFF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT WITH A LACK OF STRONGER MOISTURE
AND FORCING, EXPECT ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN OCCUR TO BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS, LEADING TO QUIETER CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SF
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