608
FXUS65 KCYS 042155
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
255 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, MILD, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEEK DUE TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
- STRONG WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
A WINDY BUT WARM DAY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA, WITH THE ARLINGTON AREA EVEN BRIEFLY HITTING HIGH WINDS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE
WARM, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH A FEW CITIES WITHIN A DEGREE
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL
EASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, CALMER
AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REGION PRECIPITATION FREE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
WIND AWAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A WINDY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
TO ABOUT 50 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE. IT WILL
BE WINDY, BUT NOT HIGH WINDS AS IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
PROBABILITIES INCREASING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, STRONGER MSLP GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO RAMP UP
TO 55 TO 60 KTS WITH EVEN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. IN-HOUSE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND PRONES.
HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW TO SEE FURTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE LONG TERM REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE SEE MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW
OF STRONG TO HIGH WINDS FROM SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHILE ALSO COOLING US BACK DOWN FROM OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THURSDAY STARTS AS A QUICK TROUGH SWINGS IN DURING THE
MORNING AND SHIFTS RIDGING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOW 50'S, BUT LOCATIONS
EAST OF THIS WILL REMAIN WARM AS WE SEE 50'S TO MID 60'S
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD 700MB WINDS IN THE 50+
KNOT RANGE WITH FAVORABLE DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES BRINGING THESE
SPEEDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING TROUGH SWINGS DOWN AGAIN
ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER PACIFIC LOW INTO SATURDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY DESCEND BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THESE SYSTEMS BRING IN A SURGE OF COLDER
CANADIAN AIR FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40'S TO
POSSIBLY VERY LOW 50'S, WITH VERY COLD MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS
TO 20'S SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET OFF
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BUT WITH A LACK OF STRONGER MOISTURE AND FORCING,
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN OCCUR TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. EARLY NEXT WEEK WE GET OUR NEXT ROUND OF
RIDGING, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO START
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS, LEADING TO QUIETER CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SF
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