703
FXUS65 KCYS 070517
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1017 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THIS EVENT IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
AND MOUNTAIN-WAVE PROPAGATION. OF NOTE IS THE RATHER CLASSIC
FOEHN WAVE SIGNATURE IN GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE/SNOWY RANGE/LARAMIE RANGE, A VISUAL CLUE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. MOUNTAIN WAVE PACKETS ALSO REMAIN
APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON IN GOES WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GUSTS GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE AREAS OF
STRONGEST DESCENT/DRYING. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS OVER 58
MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT CHEYENNE AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-25 AS MOUNTAIN WAVE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS FARTHER
EAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
AFFECTING OUR REGION WILL SLIDE EAST, WITH THE CORE OF THE
MID/UPPER JET SLIDING EAST AS WELL. THEREFORE, WE ARE EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER 0Z AND SURFACE WINDS
DROPPING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN ALL ZONES BY 6Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER,
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG I-80 IN THE SNOWY RANGE AND
LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IN EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH AND THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
SUNSET.
ON FRIDAY WE WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NOTABLY, HOWEVER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET ANY WARMER THAN ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY IN THE
LOW-LEVELS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, WHEN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AFTER MIDNIGHT
EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOTABLE DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ONLY A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID
IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS BOTH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES TAKE A NOSE DIVE, SUNDAY WILL SEE A
REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS. SO, EXPECT SOME CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THE 500MB PATTERN
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH WITH SLIM CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODELED
SOUNDINGS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY AND BECOME NORTHERLY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING
AS COOL CANADIAN AIR FILTERS IN. THE OTHER CONDITION THAT MAY BE OF
SOME CONCERN, WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY. A
PINCH IN THE GRADIENT WILL ELICIT STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WITH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SEEING THE STRONGEST AS NORTHERLY WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 45 MPH ESPECIALLY FOR ALLIANCE, CHADRON, AND SYDNEY. IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, THIS MAY MAKE THE NEED FOR WIND PRODUCTS THIS
WEEKEND, STAY TUNED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES TANK THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS
THE CWA. WHAT ABOUT NEXT WEEK, WELL, WE WILL SEE SOME CHANGES AS
WEAK RIDGING NOSES IN, RESULTING IN A PRETTY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND, WITH HIGHS SOARING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, BUT WYOMING
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT AT KLAR AND KCYS
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-116-
117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...AM
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