274
FXUS65 KCYS 072344
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
444 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
- WINDS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
A THICK BLANKET OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT REGIME AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH, STRONG FLOW IN THE 700MB-500MB LAYER HAS ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST WYOMING RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE REGIME
EVIDENT IN MODEL OMEGA FIELDS. HIGH WINDS OVER 50KTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POTENT MID-LEVEL JET AND
MOUNTAIN-WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE, IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS
YESTERDAY'S WINDY DAY IN CHEYENNE PROPER. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH 0Z AND 3Z IN THE TYPICAL WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LATER THIS EVENING, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CHARGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND AIRMASS CHANGE
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. HREF
ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DISPERSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
BEEN THE MOST BULLISH, WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION TO SUPPORT A
TRACE TO UP TO A HALF-INCH OR SO OF SNOW FOR THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
IMMEDIATE EASTWARD POINTS, INCLUDING CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND. OTHER
HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCLUDING THE NAM NEST AND FV3 ARE MUCH DRIER,
WITH ONLY DRY COLD WIND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HRRR, BACKED UP
BY INCREASING SUPPORT FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 3
CYCLES, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE CHANCE FOR TRACE TO LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE CHEYENNE METRO AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL ALSO CATCH SOME SNOWFALL WITH THIS
EVENT, WHERE AROUND 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE FOR THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXTENSIONS OR
NEW HIGH WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO COVER THESE THREATS, HOWEVER LOCAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT ON THE FENCE AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER THE 50-KNOT
HIGH WIND THRESHOLD AT THIS TIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, PUMPING IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR. THIS RESULTS WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS TANK INTO
THE 20S WEST OF I-25 AND TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST OF THE CORRIDOR.
AS WE PROGRESS IN THE LONG TERM, THE DEEP TROUGH WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURE AT THE START WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING WILL BUILD IN RIGHT BEHIND IT. SO,
MONDAY WILL BE THE START OF SOME PRETTY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS RIDGING
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SOARING BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WHILE LOWS DIVE INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. THE ONLY
WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, IF YOU CALL IT
THAT, WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WIND EVENT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS, STRONGEST ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE
NEED OF ANY WIND PRODUCTS, STAY TUNED...
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
NO AVIATION CONCERNS REGARDING CIGS AND VIS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER NIGHT OF GUSTY
WINDS ARE IN STORE WHICH WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. FOR THE WYOMING TERMINALS, GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND
35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AND NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEBRASKA
TERMINALS, INCREASING SATURDAY TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR KCYS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT UP TO 50 KNOTS AROUND 2K FEET. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, DUE TO DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN SLIM.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106-116-
117.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ
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