503
FXUS65 KCYS 260603
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1100 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WIND-PRONE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK, BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION.
- THE PROBABILITY OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS INCREASING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL USHER IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SEE NOTABLE
VARIABILITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS THE
STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUING THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAVE
SUBSIDED. THUS, WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
THAT WERE IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
SO, FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE AT
THEIR PEAK AND EXPECT THEM TO PLUNGE AFTER SUNSET, DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES, TOMORROW'S HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA.
LETS SHIFT OUR FOCUS BACK TO WINDS, DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP IN OUR TYPICAL WIND PRONE
AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA AT 700MB OF NEARLY 60 KNOTS COUPLED WITH
NEGATIVE OMEGA (GFS) WILL AID IN MIXING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. SO, EXPECT HIGH WINDS FOR
ARLINGTON AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS, HIGH WIND PRODUCTS WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SHIFTING TO PRECIPITATION, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AT MID-LEVELS, HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
INCREASED CHANCES OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LEADING
TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR
THE CWA. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH NOTABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR AREA. BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL DROP OUR HIGHS AND LOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONGSIDE BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR ALL ZONES. LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE DIALED BACK OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE EXPECTED MOISTURE HAS DROPPED THANKFULLY IN PART TO THE
OVERALL TROUGH NOT BEING QUITE AS STRONG OR AS DEEP AS IN
YESTERDAY'S RUNS. BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT CAN OCCUR
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR ALL ZONES, AND COULD
ACCUMULATE, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS
FOR REGIONS THAT HAVE BEEN WARM OR HAVEN'T SEEN HEAVY SNOWFALL
YET. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES AS WELL,
POSSIBLY PROMPTING WINTER HEADLINES THOUGH THE DURATION WILL BE
OVER SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH MEANS
THE NBM HAS DIALED BACK A SMALL PORTION OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL THE SPREAD IN PERCENTILES IS STILL
NEARLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY AS
HIGHS WON'T MAKE IT PAST FREEZING, AND LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IN THE VERY LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. WE SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
STARTS TO EXIT, BUT JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM ANOTHER BURST OF
COLD MAY BE POSSIBLE AND OUR WARMUP SHOULD BE BRIEF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
TERMINALS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
LOWER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS KRWL AND KSNY, SO ADDED VCSH AND PROB30 IN THE MORNING
AND MID AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. LOWER CHANCES AT KLAR AND KCYS DUE
TO DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT
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