201
FXUS65 KCYS 261002
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WIND-PRONE AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK, BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION.
- THE PROBABILITY OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS INCREASING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL USHER IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SEE NOTABLE
VARIABILITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
A CHILLY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SITTING IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPERATURES ARE BIT WARMER OUT WEST AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT GET MUCH COLDER AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
SAME DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO LEAD TO MARGINAL HIGH WINDS AROUND THE
ARLINGTON AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WHILE MSLP GRADIENTS WILL
NOT RESPOND TO THE DISTURBANCE, CAG TO CPR 700 MB GRADIENTS WILL
BECOME ELEVATED. THIS WILL CAUSE 700 MB WINDS TO MAX OUT AROUND 55
KTS. SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS DECENT, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT LINE UP WITH THE TIME OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT.
IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO DECREASED HIGH WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
ARLINGTON AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. AS
A RESULT, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH WIND HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE GUSTS
START GETTING CLOSE TO CRITERIA, HOWEVER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN UNDER 55 MPH. BESIDES ELEVATED WINDS IN THE WIND PRONES, THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. IF THESE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS AS ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WEATHER WISE. THE CWA
WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST CITIES. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, HOWEVER,
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO PRECIPITATION DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. OVERALL,
THE WEATHER WILL COOPERATE FOR THOSE TRAVELING IN THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LEADING
TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR
THE CWA. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH NOTABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR AREA. BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL DROP OUR HIGHS AND LOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONGSIDE BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR ALL ZONES. LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE DIALED BACK OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE EXPECTED MOISTURE HAS DROPPED THANKFULLY IN PART TO THE
OVERALL TROUGH NOT BEING QUITE AS STRONG OR AS DEEP AS IN
YESTERDAY'S RUNS. BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT CAN OCCUR
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR ALL ZONES, AND COULD
ACCUMULATE, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS
FOR REGIONS THAT HAVE BEEN WARM OR HAVEN'T SEEN HEAVY SNOWFALL
YET. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES AS WELL,
POSSIBLY PROMPTING WINTER HEADLINES THOUGH THE DURATION WILL BE
OVER SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH MEANS
THE NBM HAS DIALED BACK A SMALL PORTION OF THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL THE SPREAD IN PERCENTILES IS STILL
NEARLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY AS
HIGHS WON'T MAKE IT PAST FREEZING, AND LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IN THE VERY LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. WE SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
STARTS TO EXIT, BUT JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM ANOTHER BURST OF
COLD MAY BE POSSIBLE AND OUR WARMUP SHOULD BE BRIEF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
TERMINALS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
LOWER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS KRWL AND KSNY, SO ADDED VCSH AND PROB30 IN THE MORNING
AND MID AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. LOWER CHANCES AT KLAR AND KCYS DUE
TO DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT
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