320
FXUS65 KCYS 262243
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN ALONG I-80.
- TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
CLOUDS ARE ROLLING THROUGH THE CWA AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS THAT ARLINGTON HAS EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
ALOFT OF NEAR 55 KNOTS COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE OMEGA (GFS) AIDED N
MIXING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN GUSTS THAT
TOPPED OUT NEAR 65 MPH. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE OVER THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL DAYS DIDN'T DEPICT SURFACE WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE;
HOWEVER, JUST SHY OF THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA, EVEN AS LATE AS
THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS EARLIER TODAY HIT THE CRITERIA AND A
HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN
ALONG I-80 WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. SHIFTING
ATTENTION TO PRECIPITATION, A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA AT MID-LEVELS, RESULTING IN SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS NOW
EXITED OUR CWA BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR SCAN. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY BACK BUILDING, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALL
BUT OVER.
LETS NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THANKSGIVING DAY, WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING?
WELL, IN SHORT, NOT A WHOLE LOT. PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
MINIMAL TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA. A CAVEAT, HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR DUE TO SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW NOTHING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE 20S. SO, IF YOU
HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE CWA, IT APPEARS THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOPERATING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FRIDAY WILL BRING PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN EXPECTED TRAIN OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TRANSIENT RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD, AIDED BY
MODEST WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY BECOME ELEVATED IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WINDS IS FAIRLY LOW (20%) AT
THIS TIME. 700-MB TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE TO AROUND 0 TO +2C FRIDAY,
SUPPORTING HIGHS APPROXIMATELY 10F WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING THE
FIRST WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LIFT VIA
FRONTOGENESIS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO AT
LEAST SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RISE QUICKLY, BY PERHAPS 2-3 MB PER HOUR BEHIND THE FRONT. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. A FEW SNOW SQUALLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST, AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE SNOWY RANGE, LARAMIE RANGE, AND
ELEVATED RIDGES OF THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE PINE RIDGE AND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. DUE TO THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM, SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT THESE FAVORED
AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-3", WITH A DUSTING TO 1" ELSEWHERE. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SNOWY RANGE AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
(ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN), PLUS CONVERSE COUNTY, WHICH HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES TO NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PROBABILITIES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO 50% AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
HIGHS STUCK IN THE 20S AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOUT 15F EVEN AT
MIDDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SHUT OFF MOST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND INTO SOUTHERN PLATTE/NORTHERN LARAMIE COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLIES. THIS WILL KEEP
SUNDAY'S HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S (WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO BE
COLDER, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH IF WE HOLD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY), BUT WITH LESS WIND. THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY,
ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED INTO TWO SCENARIOS. ABOUT 65% OF MEMBERS
FAVOR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
OF LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH (EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS). 35% OF MEMBERS STILL ARE HOLDING ONTO THE SCENARIO WHERE
THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP SOME OVERRUNNING LIFT OVER
THE AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF THE SNOWIER SCENARIO IS DECREASING,
IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT JUST YET.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN POSSIBLE AROUND LATE TUESDAY
TO EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT, WITH THE
STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EXPECT WESTERLY GUSTS TO TOP OUT
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH 00Z, DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR A VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS; HOWEVER, CIGS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET, KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ
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