455
FXUS65 KCYS 271130
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
430 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE, ALLOWING
THOSE THAT ARE TRAVELING AN EASIER JOURNEY THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER
OR NOT PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, AS RADAR RETURNS
ARE IN OBSERVATION SPARSE LOCATIONS. AS THE DAY CONTINUES, HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE CWA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL CAUSE RELATIVELY MINOR
IMPACTS AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. EVEN THE WIND WILL BEHAVE TODAY, MAKING IT A
RELATIVELY PLEASANT TURKEY DAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING ARCTIC FRONT. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY AS VERY WEAK/NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS 700 MB TO REACH 0C. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST CITIES
REACHING HIGHS IN THE 50S. AS A RESULT, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND PRONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER IN-HOUSE
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES OF HIGH WINDS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING. HEADING INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, A FEW
SNOW SQUALLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS OR EVEN
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALSO BRING THE FIRST WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE AND A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR LIFT VIA FRONTOGENESIS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TO AT LEAST SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES. LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY, BY PERHAPS 2-3 MB PER HOUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. A
FEW SNOW SQUALLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST, AND THUS PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE SNOWY RANGE,
LARAMIE RANGE, AND ELEVATED RIDGES OF THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
THE PINE RIDGE AND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. DUE TO
THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT THESE FAVORED AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-3",
WITH A DUSTING TO 1" ELSEWHERE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SNOWY
RANGE AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS (ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN), PLUS
CONVERSE COUNTY, WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO 50%
AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
HIGHS STUCK IN THE 20S AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOUT 15F EVEN AT
MIDDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SHUT OFF MOST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND INTO SOUTHERN PLATTE/NORTHERN LARAMIE COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLIES. THIS WILL KEEP
SUNDAY'S HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S (WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO BE
COLDER, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH IF WE HOLD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY), BUT WITH LESS WIND. THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY,
ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED INTO TWO SCENARIOS. ABOUT 65% OF MEMBERS
FAVOR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
OF LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH (EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS). 35% OF MEMBERS STILL ARE HOLDING ONTO THE SCENARIO WHERE
THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP SOME OVERRUNNING LIFT OVER
THE AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF THE SNOWIER SCENARIO IS DECREASING,
IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT JUST YET.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN POSSIBLE AROUND LATE TUESDAY
TO EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TERMINALS, HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY COULD LEAD TO A STRAY SNOW SHOWER WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DIMINISH VISIBILITY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...SF
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