449
FXUS65 KCYS 132011
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
111 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH CRASHING TEMPS INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
WHILE THE CORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING TAIL END OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT IS
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE FRONT
NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS SHOULD
REMAIN A FRONT RANGE EVENT WITH TEMPS NORTH OF PINE RIDGE NOT
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 15 TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME CHEYENNE HAS
LIKELY ALREADY REACH THEIR DAILY HIGH OF 52 AS OF 11AM AND WILL
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TO FREEZING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ASIDE FROM TODAYS COLD FRONT THERE REMAINS
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG I80 FROM LARAMIE TO ELK MOUNTAIN WHERE
GUSTS CONTINUE TO TOP 50MPH (MAINLY AROUND ARLINGTON) BUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
TENDENCIES REVERSE JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BRINGING AN END
TO THE HIGH WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE VIA
SOME WEAK SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ THAT LOOKS TO WASHOUT BY
00Z. WITHER WAY NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH TODAY EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS WIDELY IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND 20S WITHIN
THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD AND 30 KT WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE MAIN JET IN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS KEEPING A DOWNSLOPE
REGIME IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS AS DAILY HIGHS THROUGH
TUESDAY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST
OVER 40-50MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 60MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THE POINT
THAT A HIGH WIND WARNING WOULD BE JUSTIFIED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR THE LONGER TERM THINGS MAY NOT BE AS ZONAL ALOFT AS ONCE
THOUGHT WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LIKELY TO TRAVERSE THE CREST OF
THE FLATTENED RIDGE. THE FIRST WAVE BEING SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BE A NON FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER AND THEN
A SECOND WAVE DIVING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH IN
TERMS OF MOISTURE IT MAY PASS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE WIND PRONES. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE IS
NOT CURRENTLY FAVORING THIS TO BE A PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE OR
WIDESPREAD EVENT BUT LIKELY TO REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR A FEW
AREAS. THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BRING A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND
IMPRESSIVE WAVE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A 700MB JET
CROSSING RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLATEAU AND
MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS. GUIDANCE MUCH MORE HEAVILY FAVORS THIS
SYSTEM TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION WITH GREATER THAN A 70%
CONFIDENCE FROM THE RANDOM FOREST MODEL THAT THIS WILL MEET
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR
SOMETHING 5-6 DAYS OUT. ALONG WITH THE VERY LIKELY HIGH WINDS,
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. HOWEVER WITH IT FALLING OVER A MULTI DAY
PERIOD IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYO AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE IS CAUSING SOME HAZARDOUS AVIATION WEATHER TODAY. A
LOW STRATUS DECK WITH EMBEDDED FOG AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN IFR FOR THE PANHANDLE TERMINALS, ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT
AND WINDS TAPER EARLY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY
14/00Z. OVER WYO, BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET WITH PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TT
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...DS
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