909
FXUS65 KCYS 060017
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
515 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
- HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS MAY SPREAD
INTO ADJACENT POPULATED AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
THOSE AREAS.
- ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS A DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT ARE
SUPPORTING SOME PARTIALLY CONVECTIVE MODES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ON
AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FORCING WILL
BE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WE SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE IN COVERAGE, AND COME TO AN END AFTER ABOUT
8PM.
WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WHEATLAND TO
THE COLORADO STATE LINE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK THIS
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING A BREAK WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP THE HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL FORCING FOR STRONG WINDS
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE WIND CORRIDORS REMAIN AROUND 30 TO 50% THROUGH THE
EVENING. THESE COME UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BOARD AS
LARGE-SCALE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS IS AS
USUAL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, BUT OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF INTERMITTENT WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BREAKS AT TIMES IN THE WINDS, BUT AGAIN,
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THESE POTENTIAL IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
SPLIT THE WARNING. IN ADDITION, MODELS DEPICT DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION EXTENDING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR (BEYOND JUST BORDEAUX)
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MARGINAL THIS FAR EAST, AROUND 45 TO 55
KNOTS. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
BREAKING WITH A TRANSIENT, MARGINAL INVERSION INDICATED. DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS REACHING CHEYENNE AND
WHEATLAND, OPTED TO ISSUE A WATCH. THESE AREAS ALSO SHOULD SEE A
MORE DEFINED BREAK TUESDAY EVENING, EVEN THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAWLINS, LARAMIE, CHEYENNE, AND WHEATLAND HAVE ABOUT A 40%
CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 60 MPH ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
WESTERLY FLOW DOES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND
WARNINGS THAT STARTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH END BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY
HOWEVER THEY CURRENTLY DON'T LOOK TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES AND
BE DIURNAL IN TREND. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
IN THIS DRY PATTERN. THERE IS A SHORT DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOME LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS TO WHICH
SOME OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE COULD PROVIDE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
EAST OF I-25 INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE PATTERN
MOVES FROM WESTERLY FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST KEEPING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DOES PUSH THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY BUT AREAS OUTSIDE OUR MOUNTAINS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY EVENING THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST AND START TO PUSH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY OR OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR KLAR AND
KRWL SHOULD END SHORTLY BY 02Z. REMAINING WINDY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ107.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ107-118.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR WYZ110.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ112.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT
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