493
FXUS65 KCYS 062351
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
451 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS, INTERMITTENTLY SPILLING INTO ADJACENT ZONES.
- ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA, BUT WE ARE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO CLOUD SHIELDS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE
SOUTH. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STORM SYSTEMS, WE HAVE OF COURSE THE
EVER PRESENT WIND FORCED BY THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. 700-
MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE PEAKING NOW, BUT WILL NOT DROP OFF QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS (AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN ACCORDING TO SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). 700-MB WIND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY OR STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FAR, WINDS
ARE GENERALLY COMING IN ON THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST, LIKELY DUE
TO THE BROAD DESCENDING MOTION PRESENT. OUR AREA IS LOCATED BOTH IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND IN
THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE BROAD SYNOPTIC DESCENT AND REALIZE SOME FAIRLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RETREATING TO
THE WIND PRONE AND ADJACENT ZONES AFTER SUNDOWN. THE WARNING FOR
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME, WHILE THE I-
25 CORRIDOR FROM CHUGWATER TO GLENROCK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND THE WIND PRONES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON TOO, BUT THIS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF AN
INVERSION NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING, BUT IF WE MANAGE TO
DEVELOP THIS STABLE LAYER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
MODEST MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKING ACTIVITY INTO CONVERSE AND PLATTE
COUNTIES. THIS WAS WHAT PROMPTED THE EXTENSION OF THE WARNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN, AND CONSISTENCY OF, THESE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE REDUCED FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF THE WIND EVENT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND WINDY DAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S VALUES, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT THIS IS TRENDING MORE AND MORE DISORGANIZED. WE WILL HAVE TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO KEEP TRACK OF. THE FIRST WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EJECTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, JUST A LITTLE DELAYED FROM THE
SOUTHERN LOW. ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK
THAT KEEPS BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IDEAL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR AREA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER CHANCES DUE TO THE PASSING
FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, OROGRAPHIC LIFT LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO
A NEAR-NULL WIND FIELD PASSING OVER THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS. SO, WHILE WE STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES
(60 TO 80%) FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MOUNTAIN WINTER HEADLINES IN ORDER TO WAIT FOR IMPROVED CONFIDENCE.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HAVE IMPACTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
MORE DETAILS ON THAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL TURN INTO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL HELP US PUT A PAUSE IN HIGH WIND
WARNINGS FOR THE AREAS. A STREAM OF VORTICITY ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH AND WILL HELP SYNOPTICALLY LIFT THE SURFACE MOISTURE FOR
SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH
SIPHONING SOME ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA RESULTING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THIS ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR HIGHER PEAKS. FRIDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
GIVE US SOME CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE
MODELS KEEP PUSHING THAT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN SO
WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO STAY DRY FRIDAY. BUT ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOOK TO
SPIKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY SEE SOME
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OFF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY TO KEEP US DRY THOSE DAYS. OUR
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO RISE BACK INTO THE 30'S
AND 40'S AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 451 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
OTHER THAN A CONTINUATION OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND
THE DAKOTAS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. REMAINING WINDY AT KRWL AND KCYS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT, WITH A
BRIEF 12 HOUR LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS, INCLUDING
KLAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 05Z AND 15Z FOR THE
TERMINALS THAT DECOUPLE. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL WINDY FOR MOST TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ101.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-
117.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ107-118.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TJT
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