948
FXUS65 KCYS 071751
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE WIND
PRONE AREAS, INTERMITTENTLY SPILLING INTO ADJACENT ZONES.
- ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
WIND WIND GO AWAY, COME BACK ANOTHER DAY. STRONG WINDS HAVE PLAGUED
OUR WIND PRONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70
MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES. THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE NOT BE CONTINUOUS, SO EXPECT
CONTINUED BURSTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WE STILL HAVE HIGH
WIND WARNINGS IN PLACE, WITH ALL OF THEM ENDING BY 5PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, WE GET A NICE REPRIEVE FROM THE STRONG WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
NOW WITH ALL THAT WIND TALK OUT OF THE WAY, WHAT ABOUT TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES? LETS FIRST TALK ABOUT TEMPERATURES, VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SO EXPECT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
WEST OF I-25 AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOWS, NOT ALL THAT COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 30S WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE
TEENS. HIGH UP AT 500MB A FEW FEATURES, LOWS, WILL COME
TOGETHER BY THURSDAY, FORMING A PRETTY DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOWS
WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES, INCREASING CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH WILL DIVE SOUTH, AIDING IN EXPANDING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA, EVEN INTO THE CHEYENNE AREA, BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS
SAID SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR CWA, CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO, YOU MAY ASK, HOW
MUCH SNOW CAN WE EXPECT? AS OF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE,
GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR THE SIERRA MADRE, SNOWY, AND LARAMIE RANGES. WILL HOLD OFF
WITH ANY WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. I BET A LOT OF YOU ARE
WONDERING WHAT CAN WE EXPECT HERE IN CHEYENNE, WELL, FOR THE
SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE, WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 2" THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL TURN INTO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL HELP US PUT A PAUSE IN HIGH WIND
WARNINGS FOR THE AREAS. A STREAM OF VORTICITY ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH AND WILL HELP SYNOPTICALLY LIFT THE SURFACE MOISTURE FOR
SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH
SIPHONING SOME ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA RESULTING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THIS ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR HIGHER PEAKS. FRIDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
GIVE US SOME CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE
MODELS KEEP PUSHING THAT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN SO
WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO STAY DRY FRIDAY. BUT ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOOK TO
SPIKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY SEE SOME
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OFF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY TO KEEP US DRY THOSE DAYS. OUR
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO RISE BACK INTO THE 30'S
AND 40'S AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOOK FOR
CONSISTENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS, AND TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS AT KRWL AND KLAR. CIGS WILL DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AT KRWL FIRST THIS EVENING, WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. HEADING TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING, SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILL IN FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE IN
IFR IS HIGHEST AT WYOMING TERMINALS (70% CHANCE). CIGS AND VIS
MAY FALL AT NEBRASKA TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH MVFR LIKELY
(70%) AND IFR POSSIBLE (30%).
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106-110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MN
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