835
FXUS65 KCYS 091042
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE.
- MARGINAL HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RADAR AND
GROUND OBSERVATIONS AS A SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY,
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING FORECAST. THIS SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -16C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH MOST CITIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. BEHIND THIS SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR,
WINDS WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL IN THE AIR, WITH WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 20S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR
OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE, HOWEVER,
IT WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP WITH TEMPERATURES.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL CAUSE MSLP GRADIENTS TO STEEPEN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INCREASE 850 MB CAG TO CPR HEIGHT
GRADIENTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL RESPOND, INCREASING JUST UP TO 50 KTS.
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE, MAKING THIS
MORE OF A GRADIENT-DRIVEN EVENT. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS CONFIDENT IN
THE ARLINGTON AREA HITTING HIGH WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY, BUT MARGINAL FOR THE OTHER WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AS A RESULT, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCHES FOR ARLINGTON, BORDEAUX, AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS, AS HIGH WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS GRADIENTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY EASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLIER IN
THE EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS. BESIDES WIND, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN CONUS. SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL WARM UP TO
ROUGHLY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS MOSTLY BENIGN. DRY AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY DAY OF INTEREST WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RANGES AND
THE FOOTHILLS.
SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PUSHING IN OVER THE
PACNW WITH THE LEADING EDGE BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 700 MB JET SETTING UP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH 41-48 KTS AND NEGATIVE OMEGA SIGNALING DOWNSLOPING. WINDS WILL
NOT BE A STRONG AS DAYS PASSED, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING THAT THE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SEE AN INCREASE. 70-80% OF THE RAW
ENSEMBLES SHOW WIND GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WITH
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SEEING 50-70%
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS WELL. HOWEVER, CHEYENNE PROPER
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR WINDS THAT HIGH AND MORE LIKE 80%
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. ELSEWHERE EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE
WILL ALSO SEE 80% PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS TO NEAR 40, WHILE WEST OF
THE RANGE WILL 80% PROBABILITIES OF 25-30 MPH GUSTS.
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD SATURDAY, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
STILL. 90% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO BE
BELOW 45 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND BELOW 35 TO
THE WEST OF THE RANGE. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE AGAIN
SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
UPWARDS OF 10-20 ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY, 80-90% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES AND THE EAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
42 DEGREES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BOTH SHOW TEMPERATURES TO HOVER
AROUND THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEK ON THE EAST AND BETWEEN 40-45
DEGREES TO THE WEST (70-80% CONFIDENCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
CLOUDS OVER KRWL HAVE LOWERED A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED
WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 1,500FT AND 2,500FT. THE RADAR IS
SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING NEAR KBFF BUT THE ECHOES
ARE REALLY WEAK INDICATING SOME DISSIPATING SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTING TO SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
WYZ106.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...MM
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