405
FXUS65 KCYS 101718
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1018 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS ISSUED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WIND PRONES. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH THE ARLINGTON ZONE ALREADY VERIFYING WITH WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH. BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL
LIKELY SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS MSLP GRADIENTS AND
850 CAG TO CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS BEGIN TO STEEPEN. A SURFACE HIGH IN
WESTERN COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN, INCREASING MSLP GRADIENTS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS.
HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EASING THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN CONUS TODAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, WHILE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE USHERED IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ROUGHLY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 0C BY THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WHILE HIGHS OUT EAST
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, WITH SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS MOSTLY INACTIVE. TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE THE RIDGE AXIS TO BE PARKED
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW
THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREAS BRINGING INCREASED WINDS. THE
700 MB MODELS SHOWS A WEAKER JEST SET UP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
NEARLY 50 KT WINDS AND A DECENT OMEGA SIGNAL. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. 45-65% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING
CHANCES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW BUT AMOUNTS 20% PROBABILITIES FOR 1
INCH OF SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT HEADED ITS WAY TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED WINDS AGAIN AND SLOWLY
COOLING THE AREA BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO
HOWEVER, BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK
WITH CLUSTERS SHOWING THE DIVERGENCE TO BE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. ONE MODEL WANTS TO BRING IN A BACKDOOR TROUGH WHILE
ANOTHER MODEL JUST HAS STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS. REGARDLESS OF THAT,
BOTH ARE SUGGESTING A DECENT COOL OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN-HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOW THAT BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH MODERATE (40-60%) CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS. WINDS WILL
SETTLE AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SNY/AIA WILL SEE
WIND SHEAR AROUND 02-03Z AT WS020/32040KT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-116-
117.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...WFOCYS
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