243
FXUS65 KCYS 110318
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
818 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS TO EXPIRE
ON TIME LATE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS, THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 50
MPH AND TREND LOWER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
HIGH WIND EVENT ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION PRIMARILY FOR OUR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP
FROM EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AS THE 700MB JET HAS
INCREASED OVER THESE REGIONS. WHILE WIDESPREAD GUSTS INTO THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TERRITORY (58+ MPH) AREN'T EXPECTED FOR THESE
ZONES THAT ARE CURRENTLY NOT WARNED, AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST
NEARING THIS CRITERIA COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
ARE SET TO EXPIRE THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONDITIONS WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THE WESTERN US AND BRINGS
NOTABLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CWA. HIGHS
TODAY ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT INTO SUNDAY
WE'LL BE BACK TO SEEING WIDESPREAD 50'S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE ALREADY EXPECTED TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50'S. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS
AFTER HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE WILL BE NIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS MOSTLY INACTIVE. TUESDAY AND
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LIGHT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. TUESDAY HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN. AS FOR THE WINDS, 30-50% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH
PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SAME GOES FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CHEYENNES AND
RAWLINS.
MODELS SHOW A BRIEF TIMEFRAME BETWEEN 5 AM TUESDAY AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONLY 10-20% OF THE
RAW ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, MUCH OF
IT WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATING IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. MODELS SHOW WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
EAST WILL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING LOW 50S.
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT HEADED ITS WAY TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
WINDS AGAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL THE AREA BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE STILL OUT OF ALIGNMENT AS WE MOVE
INTO MID-WEEK WITH CLUSTERS SHOWING THE DIVERGENCE TO BE WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. ONE MODEL WANTS TO BRING IN A
TROUGH WHILE ANOTHER MODEL JUST HAS STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. REGARDLESS OF THAT, BOTH ARE SUGGESTING A DECENT COOL OFF
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN-HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOW THAT BY
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. MODELS
SHOW HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
MODERATE (40-60%) CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE AT MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AIA/SNY WILL SEE WIND SHEAR AROUND 02-04Z
THROUGH 12-18Z RESPECTIVELY AT WS020/32040KT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...WFOCYS
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