393
FXUS65 KCYS 110957
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
257 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM AS BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
SPILL INTO THE ROCKIES, USHERING IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. 700
MB TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HOVER AROUND 0C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 50S TO THE EAST. BY MONDAY, HIGHS IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-JANUARY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON BOTH DAYS WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS, BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE EDGE OF A 250 MB JET WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE
CWA, AIDING IN THE BREEZINESS. DESPITE THIS, BOTH DAYS WILL BE
MILD AND PLEASANT MID-WINTER DAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS MOSTLY INACTIVE. TUESDAY AND
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LIGHT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. TUESDAY HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN. AS FOR THE WINDS, 30-50% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH
PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SAME GOES FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CHEYENNES AND
RAWLINS.
MODELS SHOW A BRIEF TIMEFRAME BETWEEN 5 AM TUESDAY AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONLY 10-20% OF THE
RAW ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, MUCH OF
IT WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATING IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. MODELS SHOW WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
EAST WILL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING LOW 50S.
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT HEADED ITS WAY TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
WINDS AGAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL THE AREA BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE STILL OUT OF ALIGNMENT AS WE MOVE
INTO MID-WEEK WITH CLUSTERS SHOWING THE DIVERGENCE TO BE WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. ONE MODEL WANTS TO BRING IN A
TROUGH WHILE ANOTHER MODEL JUST HAS STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. REGARDLESS OF THAT, BOTH ARE SUGGESTING A DECENT COOL OFF
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN-HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOW THAT BY
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. MODELS
SHOW HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
MODERATE (40-60%) CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
REGION SUNDAY. DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24+
HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT
OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...TJT
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