005
FXUS65 KCYS 112010
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
110 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST LEAVING THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE
JET STREAM WILL PRIMARILY STAY NORTH OF US WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP IN NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT TIMES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED GUSTY WINDS FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. WITH THE
JETSTREAM TO OUR NORTH, WEAKER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LACKING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NEEDED FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
OUR IN-HOUSE WIND ALGORITHM GIVES A 20-40% PROBABILITY FOR ELEVATED
WINDS ACROSS OUR WIND PRONES FOR THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX AREAS.
THIS GIVES HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE GUSTY WIND SCENARIO AS
OPPOSED TO A HIGH WIND SCENARIO. ALSO, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF BEING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL GIVE US DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. HOWEVER, THE AREAS
OF HIGHER WINDS AREN'T ALIGNING WITH THE DRIEST REGIONS LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOUNCING BETWEEN -4
AND 4C KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
WEST OF I-25 AND 50'S AND A COUPLE ISOLATED 60'S POSSIBLE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-25. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN A CONSISTENT 20'S AND 30'S DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RELATIVELY BENIGN, BUT WILL THEN
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AS A SHORT DURATION PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD COOL THE REGION OFF AND BRING A LOW-END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS, BUT THIS COLD SHOT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE PERIOD AND WILL SEE OUR REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERN US RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A
TRANSIENT RIDGE OVERSTRETCHING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DRY AND FAIRLY BENIGN
ENVIRONMENT, BUT THANKS TO OUR NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IT'S NOT ANTICIPATED WE'LL SEE ANY FURTHER WARMTH FROM
THIS SYSTEM, WITH SIMILAR IF NOT JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THAT BEING SAID, A SHOT OF COLD FOLLOWS DIRECTLY ON THE HEELS OF
THIS RIDGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SWINGS A TROUGH AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE PRESENT, THE
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION IS LOW BASED ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, ONLY AROUND 10-15%, AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN, AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MEAGER AT BEST. BUT THE
COLD AIR THAT INTRUDES WITH IT WILL BE NOTEWORTHY, DROPPING OUR
LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20'S. THIS
COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS FROM THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CAUSE OUR AREA TO SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND NEARING THE NEGATIVES. ALSO AS MENTIONED, BREEZY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY, BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING HIGH WIND
LEVEL CRITERIA AS GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SIGNIFICANT, AND
SOME BREEZY 700MB WINDS WILL PRESENT BUT OMEGA FIELDS ARE
UNDERWHELMING AS OF THIS WRITING, AND LIKELY WON'T BE ABLE TO
FULLY BRING THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS REMAIN IN THE TEENS, BUT TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND BY THE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WILL RETURN US TO BENIGN CONDITIONS TO END THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS RETURN AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS DISSIPATE YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, BUT OTHERWISE AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS
THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES EITHER CLEAR OR FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A QUICK
SPOT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KLAR DURING
THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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