452
FXUS65 KCYS 120947
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
247 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
ANOTHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. WARMER 700 MB AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE
CWA, WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES HITTING +2C. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE ENCROACHING ON THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY,
LEADING TO A WARM DAY AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH HIGHS OUT WEST IN THE
40S. THESE HIGHS WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-JANUARY! SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MONDAY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. A TROUGH WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM CANADA,
CLIPPING THE CWA. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THE TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE. AS THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH,
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO POTENTIALLY GET SOME SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE WORDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE CWA. IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WHILE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE, LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RELATIVELY BENIGN, BUT WILL THEN
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AS A SHORT DURATION PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD COOL THE REGION OFF AND BRING A LOW-END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS, BUT THIS COLD SHOT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE PERIOD AND WILL SEE OUR REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERN US RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A
TRANSIENT RIDGE OVERSTRETCHING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DRY AND FAIRLY BENIGN
ENVIRONMENT, BUT THANKS TO OUR NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IT'S NOT ANTICIPATED WE'LL SEE ANY FURTHER WARMTH FROM
THIS SYSTEM, WITH SIMILAR IF NOT JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THAT BEING SAID, A SHOT OF COLD FOLLOWS DIRECTLY ON THE HEELS OF
THIS RIDGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SWINGS A TROUGH AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE PRESENT, THE
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION IS LOW BASED ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, ONLY AROUND 10-15%, AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN, AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MEAGER AT BEST. BUT THE
COLD AIR THAT INTRUDES WITH IT WILL BE NOTEWORTHY, DROPPING OUR
LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20'S. THIS
COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS FROM THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CAUSE OUR AREA TO SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND NEARING THE NEGATIVES. ALSO AS MENTIONED, BREEZY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY, BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING HIGH WIND
LEVEL CRITERIA AS GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SIGNIFICANT, AND
SOME BREEZY 700MB WINDS WILL PRESENT BUT OMEGA FIELDS ARE
UNDERWHELMING AS OF THIS WRITING, AND LIKELY WON'T BE ABLE TO
FULLY BRING THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS REMAIN IN THE TEENS, BUT TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND BY THE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WILL RETURN US TO BENIGN CONDITIONS TO END THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS RETURN AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS DISSIPATE YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONAL GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OVER KCYS AND KRWL.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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