300
FXUS65 KCYS 122041
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
141 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- VERY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST, LETS TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS,
WHAT WINDS YOU MAY ASK? WELL, WITH NO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT,
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CHANCES WILL BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY.
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS RETURN TO THE CWA BEHIND A TROUGH THAT DIVES
SOUTH ON TUESDAY, MORE ON THAT LATER. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH, STRONGEST IN OUR WIND PRONES, AND
THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER. WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES? THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE AXIS OF SAID RIDGE WILL
REMAIN PERCHED ACROSS THE WEST COAST, THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF TODAY ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURES. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +2C, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S WEST OF I-25 AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE CORRIDOR, WARMEST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOWS, NOT
ALL THAT LOW OR COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WILL DIP INTO THE
20S TO LOW 30S. PRECIPITATION, WHAT PRECIPITATION, PRETTY DRY
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. ON TUESDAY, A FEW CHANGES REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT 500MB DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT
SLIDES INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT
NOW THE GREATEST THREAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
JUST NORTH OF CHEYENNE, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LARAMIE
RANGE. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAYBE
MIXING IN WITH SNOW TUESDAY EVENING, AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, UP TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
A FAIRLY QUIET MID-WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COLD TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY WINDS
BACK. LARGELY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
PLANTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA EXTENDS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVEN INTO
OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN A STRONG HEIGHT GRADIENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. AS A RESULT A 145-150KT JET WILL BE POSITIONED NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.THE NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AT 250MB HAS A FETCH ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN
CANADA, SO CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO AND ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -5C RANGE
WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING INTO THE -2 TO 2C
RANGE BY THE EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ADVECTS EASTWARD
BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTERN TROUGH. THEREFORE, WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-40S TO LOW-50S
ACROSS THE CWA. A 700MB TROUGH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN
ABOUT 45 AND 50KTS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS DRIER, NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE CONUS. A WEAKER, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE FLOW, EVIDENT BY INCREASING 500MB CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION, AHEAD OF THE STRONGER PUSH OF CVA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL,
CANADIAN TROUGH DEEPENS. A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. A 700MB JET
AROUND 50 TO 55KTS IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 18Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS JET
WILL OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. WITH MODEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT,
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST JET IS
EXPECTED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 18Z, THOUGH THE BEST
SUBSIDENCE DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL 00Z. THEREFORE, GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
PARAMETERS NOT LINING UP EXACTLY. IT WILL GET COLDER THOUGH, WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM THE -3C TO 0C RANGE DOWN TO THE -6
TO -4C RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLDER THAN THE SURFACE FLOW, MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE
MORE ACTIVE PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY,
THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA, BUT THE JET ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE
STRONG, WITH A FETCH ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN CANADA, ALASKA, AND
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THIS CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FUNNELED RIGHT BACK INTO
THE CWA AND ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, WITH THE WESTERN BRANCH INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN
STRENGTH AND EXPECTED JET STREAM BY SATURDAY MORNING. DOWN AT 700MB,
THE 700MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS
THE CWA. THESE HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOK TO INCREASE IN AS THE 700MB LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA, DEEPENS FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 700MB JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70-75KTS BY 06Z
FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
DROPPING TO AROUND 65-70KTS. EVEN THE 800MB JET WILL REMAIN AROUND
65 TO 70KTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FRIDAY. FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 1KM, FURTHER
FAVORING STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. WHILE THIS EVENT IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, STRONG WINDS LOOK LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, AND LIKELY BLEEDING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL. TO
MAKE THIS WIND EVENT THAT MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL, THE INITIAL JET
INTRUSION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD
AIR, WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES TANKING INTO THE -18 TO -16C RANGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL, JUST NOT AS COLD AS WESTERN NEBRASKA, LIKELY IN THE -14 TO -
10C RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, IT LOOKS TO NOT ONLY BE
WINDY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ALSO COLD, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER-20S TO MID-30S. WITH WINDS
THAT STRONG, IT WILL FEEL CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM. 50S LOOK TO RETURN
BY MONDAY, WITH GUSTING CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY SUNDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT HIGH WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY SUNDAY ONWARDS.
WIDESPREAD RIDGING RETURNS FOR SUNDAY ONWARDS, LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND 20,000FT WILL
CONTINUE WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
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