375
FXUS65 KCYS 271225
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
525 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM THIS MORNING.
- COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONGSIDE SOME PASSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH
NOTABLE WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND INCLUDING TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- OCCASIONALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AREA,
EVEN THOUGH GUST ARE STILL AROUND 55 TO 57 MPH. NEAR-SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO BE EASING THIS MORNING, SO WILL
LIKELY ALLOW THE REST OF THE WARNED AREA TO EXPIRE ON TIME
SHORTLY. OTHERWISE, INTERVALS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH CLEARING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WARMEST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL BE STUCK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF CONMOS
AND NBM 50TH PERCENTILE...WHICH DID PRETTY GOOD WITH THE WARM
BIAS ON MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE FAST MOTION AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH PWATS HARDLY CLIMBING AT ALL LATE
WEDNESDAY (0.30 TO 0.40 GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN). BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD SEE A
SURPRISE 6+ INCHES BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD AND BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS TRENDS IN THE EVENT ANY
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED, BUT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH, WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50
FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT.
THE ONLY OTHER MINOR CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WINDS
(SHOCKING, RIGHT?) ACROSS THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AREA. IN-
HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS PROBABILITIES OVER 60 PERCENT FOR A
BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS > 58 MPH...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 900 AM. THE GFS AND NAM LOW TO MIDLEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL AS IS THE MEAN 700MB SUBSIDENCE, WHICH
ARE A BIT LESS THAN THIS MORNING. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A HIGH
WIND WATCH IMMEDIATELY AFTER EXPIRING THE PREVIOUS WARNING, BUT
DECIDED TO GIVE THIS ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO ESTABLISH SOME TREND.
WE DID INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH GUSTS AROUND
55 MPH IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AND LR DISCUSSION, MAINLY
TO MOVE ANY MENTION OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO THE SHORT TERM.
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
IN PROGRESSIVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO THE
EASTERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST MEMBERS SHOWING DAWES, SIOUX, AND BOX BUTTE
COUNTY IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND USED CONMOS AND NBM 50TH PERCENTILE BLEND FOR
FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING. BANDS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR WEST
THIS FRONT PUSHES UNTIL IT STALLS. KEPT HIGHER POP WELL EAST OF
I-25 AND CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 71/US 385 CORRIDOR. THIS ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND A BRIEF WARMING TREND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING, A FEW
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW ACCUMULATIONS, MOSTLY
RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND AS WELL AS ONE OR TWO BANDS IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSED WITH OUR
HIGH WIND CHANCES, WITH IN HOUSE GUIDANCE ONLY PROMOTING A
30-50% PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS FOR OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRETY OF THE WESTERN US AND CAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES TO
NOTABLY INCREASE, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40'S TO MID
50'S AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WITH THE HIGH INCREASING IT'S
PRESENCE, IT WILL BE HARDER FOR ANY PASSING SYSTEMS TO GRAZE US,
ALSO REDUCING OUR CHANCES OF HIGH WINDS. IF YOU'VE BEEN LOOKING
FOR SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, THIS
WEEKEND MIGHT BE YOUR OPPORTUNITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K
FEET AGL. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TERMINALS TODAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ106-
116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG/TJT
AVIATION...TJT
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