129
FXUS65 KCYS 280524
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1024 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WEEK ALONGSIDE SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MOSTLY FOR OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
- OCCASIONALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR OUR USUAL WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG I-80, BUT SITES HAVE REMAINED BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS ON THE RISE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, BUT CONDITIONS AREN'T LOOKING QUITE
POTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCTS FOR OUR WIND PRONES YET.
750 MB WINDS ARE ONLY MAXING AROUND 50 KNOTS CURRENTLY, AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MODEST AT BEST, WITH IN HOUSE GUIDANCE
ONLY BRINGING PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-55%, PRIMARILY FOR
ARLINGTON AREA. WHILE CLOSE TO WHAT WE WANT TO SEE TO INITIATE A
HIGH WIND WARNING, THINKING IS THAT WE'LL HOLD OFF AND SEE WHAT
THIS EVENING'S MODEL RUNS LOOK LIKE AND DEFER TO THE INCOMING
SHIFT FOR ANY PRODUCTS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ONE OR
TWO OF OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS AT BEST.
ON THE NOTE OF WEDNESDAY, A FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL BE AIDING IN FUELING THIS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL, WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING AS WELL. BUT WITH PWAT VALUES
RESOUNDINGLY UNIMPRESSIVE AND LIMITED FORCING FROM THE QUICK
NATURE OF THIS FEATURE, MOSTLY LOOKING AT TERRAIN DRIVEN FORCING
FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. FINALLY, HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER 30'S TO UPPER 40'S, WITH PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EVEN EXPECTED TO PEAK INTO THE LOW 50'S, WHICH IS
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE STUBBORN WESTERN RIDGE / EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE, BUT A FEW WEAK STORM
SYSTEMS WILL MANAGE TO GRAZE THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BREAK
THOUGH THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO JOIN THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL KNOCK 700-MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -10C AND BRING A COOLER DAY TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL ARCTIC FRONT BACKS SLIGHTLY INTO
OUR AREA. A LITTLE SURGE OF OVERRUNNING WITH THIS LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING
AND IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION TREND OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHILE THOSE TO THE EAST SEE
THEIR COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE.
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND PERHAPS PROVIDING A BOOST TO THE WIND SPEEDS. CURRENTLY ONLY A
HANDFUL (20%) OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PARAMETERS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
WINDS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
POWERFUL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE ROCKIES. 700-
MB TEMPERATURES SURGE ABOVE 0C, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN AT
LEAST THE MID 40S TO 50S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL EVEN HAVE A CHANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES OVER 60 DEGREES. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS
EXCEEDING 60 ARE AROUND 30 TO 50% ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 ON MONDAY.
THE WARMTH WILL PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AROUND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS
GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COOLDOWN, THE PRECIPITATION
OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PASS
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AT SELECT LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...JG
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