915
FXUS65 KCYS 281703
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WEEK ALONGSIDE SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MOSTLY FOR OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES.
- OCCASIONALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
A FEW OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GUST
OF 55 MPH AT COOPER COVE, BUT NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ELSE WITH
GENERALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE (GUSTS < 50 MPH),
INCLUDING BORDEAUX. IN-HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE HAS STAYED MAINLY THE
SAME WITH PEAK GRADIENT/SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN DECREASING AROUND SUNRISE. PROBABILITIES FOR
GUSTS OVER 58 MPH REMAIN AROUND 50% TO 55%, BUT 850MB TO 700MB
GRADIENTS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. LAST MINUTE HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON
ANY GUSTS CLIMBING OVER 60 MPH AND HOW WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
50-55 MPH ARE FOR THE REMAINING AREA. OTHERWISE, WILL HANDLE
THIS EVENT WITH AN SPS IF GUSTS ARE INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AND SHOW A
CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE
FAST MOTION AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH PWATS HARDLY CLIMBING AT
ALL LATE WEDNESDAY (0.30 TO 0.40 GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN, AT BEST).
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED
TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD SEE A SURPRISE 6+ INCHES
BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. 6+ INCH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ISOLATED ENOUGH ABOVE 9500 FEET TO NOT NEED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WARMEST ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING
AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ONCE THE PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY, BUT
STILL NEAR AVERAGE (MID 30S TO MID 40S) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
FOR LATE THIS WEEK, PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE A BACK DOOR
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA, AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS ARCTIC FRONTS TEND TO BE TRICKY IN THIS
AREA, WITH MODELS SOMETIMES UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD EXTENT
OF THE FRONT AND/OR SHOW THE FRONT RETREATING EASTWARD TOO
QUICKLY. BLENDED THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE AND CONRAW FOR FORECAST
HIGHS ON FRIDAY...BUT THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRICKY SINCE
SOME MODELS SHOW THE FRONT GETTING REALLY CLOSE TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE DECEPTIVE IN THIS AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
QUICK 10 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASED POP FURTHER WEST, BUT ONLY
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PINE
RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE STUBBORN WESTERN RIDGE / EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE, BUT A FEW WEAK STORM
SYSTEMS WILL MANAGE TO GRAZE THE AREA. ANOTHER QUICK HITTING
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY TRAVERSE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING A BOOST TO THE WIND SPEEDS. CURRENTLY ONLY A HANDFUL
(20%) OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PARAMETERS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
WINDS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
POWERFUL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE ROCKIES. 700-
MB TEMPERATURES SURGE ABOVE 0C, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN AT
LEAST THE MID 40S TO 50S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL EVEN HAVE A CHANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES OVER 60 DEGREES. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS
EXCEEDING 60 ARE AROUND 30 TO 50% ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 ON MONDAY.
THE WARMTH WILL PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AROUND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS
GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COOLDOWN, THE PRECIPITATION
OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST
OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME THICKENING AND LOWERING CEILING HEIGHTS AT
RWL AND LAR HOWEVER MVFR THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE BREACHED.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT RWL AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH HOWEVER PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
MORE THAN 15 MINUTES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MAC
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