757
FXUS65 KCYS 291205
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
455 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- MILD WEATHER COOLING OFF LATER IN THE WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OBSERVED. KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF
EITHER VERY LIGHT SNOW OR VIRGA PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
I-80 AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS PRETTY DRY. LAST
NIGHT, SNOTEL SITES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND SNOWY
RANGE GENERALLY REPORTED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. EXPECT ANOTHER 1
OR SO OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND
ENDING BY MIDDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST BELOW 5000
FEET.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE A
BACK DOOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING AND
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS PRETTY SHALLOW WITH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING A
DEPTH OF 2000 TO 2500 FEET. EXPECT THIS AIRMASS TO MAKE IT AS
FAR WEST AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE IT RAPIDLY RETREATS
EASTWARD BY MID SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 DEGREES...AND LOWS LIKELY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FURTHER WEST, MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEST OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MAKE ANY IMPACT ON ALBANY AND CARBON
COUNTIES. INCREASED POP EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WITH
A SOLID CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG AND BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS LIKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW ONE INCH, MAINLY ON THE PINE RIDGE. FOR
SATURDAY, SURFACE WIND WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST AS THE FRONT
RAPIDLY RETREATS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
RETREATS, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS DUE TO A FAVORABLE GAP WIND
PATTERN. INCREASED WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF I-80 AND I-25 UP TO
HIGH WIND CRITERIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN FEATURING WESTERN US RIDGING AND
EASTERN TOUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. A
WEAK VORT-MAX MOVING UP AND OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SKIRT
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD RESULTING IN
HEIGHT-RISES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER OUR REGION. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INCREMENTALLY EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN
THE PAST SEVERAL GUIDANCE CYCLES, ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME CLUSTERS SHOWING A SERIES OF WEAK PASSING
TROUGHS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK, AND OTHERS KEEPING THE POTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SOME MODEL RUNS EVEN SUPPORT A STRONG REX-BLOCK PATTERN
(VERY FAVORABLE FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER HERE) WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE PNW AND CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. GIVEN THE PATTERN TRENDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS
WINTER, WE WILL FAVOR THE DRIER, WARMER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRY ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR MAINLY KCDR AND KAIA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED (~30% TO 45% CHANCE) AT THIS TIME BETWEEN 14Z
AND 21Z. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARLY ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...TJT
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