944
FXUS65 KCYS 300520
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUD COVER, COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE SITS OVER THE DAKOTAS
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SO LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT AGAIN, NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS, COLD TEMPERATURES, AND SNOW CHANCES.
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE IFFY
AS MODELS DON'T ALWAYS DO THE BEST WITH THESE BACKDOOR FRONTS.
HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT IF IT DID MAKE IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE, IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT PAST THE TERRAIN
INTO ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES. MOST MODELS BRING THE FRONT AS FAR
WEST AS THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AND SOUTH INTO COLORADO. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR COLDEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ALOFT, AS WELL AS AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS
BELOW FREEZING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA WILL ONLY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. ONCE AGAIN, MOST MODELS KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IN THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH AS FRONTS THIS COLD USUALLY DO NOT CONTAIN A LOT OF
MOISTURE. THE "HIGHEST" SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PINE RIDGE
AND CITIES NORTH OF IT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS, THIS TIME IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ZONES
OF THE CWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH ELEVATED TO BRIEF HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WIND
PRONE AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
LONG TERM PERIOD INITIATES WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE,
CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY MORNING MAY CLIP THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF SE WY ALONG WITH THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH TIME. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A RATHER STOUT RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTING AROUND TUESDAY WHICH PLACES THE CWA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH ONE SOLUTION SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS REMAIN DRY. EVEN IF
THESE SHORTWAVES COME TO FRUITION, THEY LOOK LARGELY NON DESCRIPT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER NORTHWEST
FLOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN THURSDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.
BOTTOM LINE IS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND VIRTUALLY
NO CHANCES OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, NEAR AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE
OF IT, BEFORE CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AT ITS
CONCLUSION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
OUTSIDE OF WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS (KRWL, KLAR, AND KCYS) FOR
THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE NEBRASKA
TERMINALS, A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE, SO PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN FOR KCDR, KSNY, AND
KAIA. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS IF A SNOW SHOWERS PASSES
OVER A TERMINAL. BY 00Z SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH
CIGS LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...RZ
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