202
FXUS65 KCYS 301153
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
450 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUD COVER, COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH TUESDAY AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BACKDOOR ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS CHADRON SHOWS A WIND SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE AREA. AS
USUAL, THIS FRONT IS A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY AROUND 500 FEET AGL, DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
UNTIL NOON TODAY. WITH SURFACE HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, KEPT FOG OUT OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AS THE FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE, CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME RETURNS ALOFT
(6000 TO 9000 FEET AGL) ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA, BUT NOTHING IS HITTING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME AND
IT'S LIKELY VIRGA. BELIEVE THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWEST, WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING EAST
I-25. KEPT POP AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF, SO KEPT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
30 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS TO THE WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BRIEFLY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AIRMASS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AROUND ~3000 FEET, SO EXPECT THIS ARCTIC
AIR TO MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS. THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY EJECT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE ARCTIC FRONT RETREATS AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS DUE TO THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER, MOST PARAMETERS
ARE PRETTY MARGINAL SO FAR WITH 700MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO BRIEFLY
AROUND 50 KNOTS, AMPLE BUT BRIEF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE
WIND PRONE AREAS, BUT A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN-
HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND REMAINS
AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR WIND PROBABILITIES OVER 58 MPH. KEPT
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS FOR THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AND
I-80 SUMMIT AREA...WHICH MAY INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE JUST ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE, MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS FAR TO THE
EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
FAIRLY QUIET WEEK EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVERHEAD. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S EVERYWHERE. THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS
LIKELY SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH, DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A STRONG 700MB LOW
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ENTERING THE CONUS AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE A VERY STRONG 700MB JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, MAXING OUT AROUND 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MAXING OUT AROUND 60 TO 65KTS IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT, IF MODEL
TRENDS HOLD TRUE, VERY STRONG WINDS LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY PROGGED
TO BE OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH IMPACTS AS FAR WEST AS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. DID NOT INCREASE WINDS AT THIS TIME, DUE TO THIS SYSTEM
BEING A WEEK OUT AND CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW, AT THIS TIME, IN THE
SYSTEM KEEPING THIS TRACK. IF THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST, THEN
STRONG WINDS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. IF IT MOVES FARTHER WEST, STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. ALL IN ALL, SOMETHING TO PAY ATTENTION TO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL, RATHER QUIET DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
BACKDOOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW FOR MOST TERMINALS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLAR AND
KRWL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS EAST
OF THE KLAR THROUGH THE DAY. KCDR HAS OBSERVED LIFR CIGS FOR THE
LAST FEW HOURS, AND EXPECTED THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z,
POSSIBLY LATER. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAIA BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR KSNY, KBFF, AND KCYS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY SEE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
CAN'T RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BETWEEN 10 TO 30 PERCENT. KEPT PROB30
GROUPS FOR SNOW DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...TJT
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