135
FXUS65 KCYS 312333
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD,
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE 40 TO 55 MPH, BUT AN OCCASIONAL
GUST OVER 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
MILD WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL BE THE THEME
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. CURRENTLY, THE
SEEMINGLY UNBREAKABLE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN OF A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND A CENTRAL/EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES. LARGELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THESE ARE REMAINING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
WHILE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-80 WIND PRONE AREAS, MOST OF THE GUSTS SHOULD
BE IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
ANALYZED SOMEWHERE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, PUSHING EASTWARD AS
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLDER WEATHER
THE LAST FEW DAYS MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER, WESTERLY FLOW
IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND SURGING TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL EASE
TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE PROBABILITY
FOR WINDS 60+ MPH SUNDAY MORNING ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20%.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE VERY STUBBORN RIDGE WILL
SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY, SUPPORTING STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. 700-MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 0C TO +2C BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH A SMALL BOOST
FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH IN WY AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN
NE. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, PUSHING 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT RECORD HIGHS APPEAR FAIRLY UNLIKELY.
FEBRUARY 1 RECORDS WERE ALL SET BACK IN 2003 AND THIS REMAINS A
FAIRLY HIGH BAR TO REACH, BUT WYOMING LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER
THAN NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S COMBINED WITH
THIS WARMTH WILL PUSH RH QUITE LOW (BETWEEN 15 AND 25% OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS), LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER LEE TROUGH OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY PUSH WINDS UP
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS, BUT THE PROBABILITY
FOR HIGH WINDS IS AROUND 30% AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
LONG TERM REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WESTERN US, KEEPING MOST SYSTEMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. THE LONG TERM
STARTS ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS A QUICK
PASSING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MODELS HAVE DIALED IMPACTS BACK NOTABLY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE
ONLY SHOWS A 25-40% PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WINDS AT OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS FOR THIS DAY, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ALL BUT
EVAPORATED IN THE NBM. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OUR TEMPERATURES
"COOL", BUT HIGHS STILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AND
THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
US AND OVERTAKES OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM, AS
HIGHS SKYROCKET ON THURSDAY INTO THE 50'S TO THE 60'S, WITH A
FEW TEMPERATURES EVEN FLIRTING WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. NBM HAS
KEPT OUR TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER THESE RECORDS, BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE DON'T BE SURPRISED IF LOCATIONS INCLUDING CHEYENNE
ITSELF BEGIN TO APPROACH NOTABLE WARMTH. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO ACT
AS A SHIELD, KEEPING PASSING SYSTEMS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ZERO AND WINDS BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA, WITH ENSEMBLES AND IN HOUSE GUIDANCE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT ON OUR QUIET WARMTH TO END THE LONG TERM. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO START TO ELONGATE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM WHICH
KEEPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. WHILE THE EASTERN US
CONTINUES TO FREEZE, WINTER IS BUT A FLEETING MEMORY FOR OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN, PRIMARILY FOR
SE WY, SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...JG
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