948
FXUS65 KCYS 011753
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1053 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH HIGH WINDS DO NOT
LOOK LIKELY DURING MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BORDEAUX, THE I-80 SUMMIT,
AND THE FOOTHILLS FROM 8PM TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM MONDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH LARGELY SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE, CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S
TO UPPER-50S AREA-WIDE. AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING, A WEAK 700MB
SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, LEADING TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND THE BORDEAUX WIND PRONE ZONES. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX WIND PRONE
ZONES DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING IN WESTERN COLORADO.
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TODAY IS MODEST, WITH GFS OMEGA FIELDS
SUGGESTING DECENT DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
700MB JET REMAINS FAIRLY WEEK, DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH, REMAINING AROUND 30 TO 35KTS. IN HOUSE RANDOM FOREST
GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE WINDS THIS MORNING, SO
DECIDED TO KEEP THEM ELEVATED BUT NOT IN HIGH WIND TERRITORY.
THEREFORE, BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MANY
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH POSSIBLE, BUT HIGH WINDS 58+MPH ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE WIND PRONE ZONES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY,
FURTHER INCREASING CONCERNS FOR GUSTY WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS FROM
DOWNSLOPING TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD HAVE
BROUGHT TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE WINDS DO LOOK TO PICK UP,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND I-80 SUMMIT AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 700MB IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SUBTLE, 700MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA, PLACING THE WIND PRONES IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
INCREASING HIGH WIND CHANCES. IN FACT, A 700MB JET AROUND 50KTS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS SOUTH. WITH
GFS OMEGA VALUES FAVORING STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION, THESE 700MB WINDS
LOOK TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE BORDEAUX WIND PRONE, AS WELL
AS THE I-80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE LARAMIE RANGE INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4MB EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH 3MB GRADIENTS ACROSS THE ARLINGTON WIND PRONE ZONE. WITH A
STRONG JET, GOOD SUBSIDENCE, AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS,
HIGH WIND CHANCES LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS AT BORDEAUX AND THE I-80
SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS AREA. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT
ARLINGTON, KEEPING IT AROUND A 25% CHANCE FOR ELEVATED WINDS. CRAIG
TO CASPER GRADIENTS ARE ALSO WEAKER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR HIGH
WINDS AT ARLINGTON. GIVEN CURRENT FOREST DATA, DECIDED TO ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8PM TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WATCHES MAY NEED TO UPGRADED LATER THIS MORNING, IF INCOMING MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER, ARLINGTON SHOULD ALSO
BE MONITORED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO PUT OUT HIGH
WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS LOCATION.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASING THE RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH TODAY AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
20 TO 30% RANGE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. SIMILARLY,
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO
MONDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 20 TO 30% RANGE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND POTENTIALLY 60+
MPH IN THE WIND PRONES, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WERE ISSUED AT THIS TIME
DUE TO ABOVE CRITERIA RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A THREE HOUR PERIOD OF NEAR-CRITERIA RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LONG TERM REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WESTERN US, KEEPING MOST SYSTEMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. THE LONG TERM STARTS
ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS A QUICK PASSING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS
HAVE DIALED IMPACTS BACK NOTABLY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A 25-
40% PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WINDS AT OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
DAY, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ALL BUT EVAPORATED IN THE NBM.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OUR TEMPERATURES "COOL", BUT HIGHS STILL REMAIN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AND THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND OVERTAKES OUR AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE LONG TERM, AS HIGHS SKYROCKET ON THURSDAY INTO THE 50'S
TO THE 60'S, WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES EVEN FLIRTING WITH NEAR RECORD
WARMTH. NBM HAS KEPT OUR TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER THESE RECORDS, BUT
IF TRENDS CONTINUE DON'T BE SURPRISED IF LOCATIONS INCLUDING
CHEYENNE ITSELF BEGIN TO APPROACH NOTABLE WARMTH. THIS HIGH WILL
ALSO ACT AS A SHIELD, KEEPING PASSING SYSTEMS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ZERO AND WINDS BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA, WITH ENSEMBLES AND IN HOUSE GUIDANCE IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON
OUR QUIET WARMTH TO END THE LONG TERM. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO START TO
ELONGATE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. WHILE THE EASTERN US CONTINUES TO FREEZE, WINTER IS BUT A
FLEETING MEMORY FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH CIGS EITHER
SKC OR SCT TO BKN AT 20K FEET. WINDS BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS
15-25 KNOTS, STRONGEST WY TERMINALS, AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
THEN INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW, THOUGH STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO WY TERMINALS TOMORROW.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WYZ106-116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM/CG
AVIATION...CG
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