861
FXUS65 KCYS 012337
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
437 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE WIND
PRONE AREAS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
FEBRUARY HAS STARTED OFF WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EVEN AROUND
LARAMIE AND RAWLINS, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING IN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS ARE EVEN FAIRLY MODEST TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 55 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE VERY STUBBORN WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE TODAY, WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP BOOST THE CROSS-BARRIER MSLP
GRADIENT, THUS NUDGING WINDS UP AGAIN FOR OUR TYPICAL WIND PRONE
AREAS. 700-MB WINDS AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL ALSO COME UP A BIT AS
THE SHORTWAVE COMPRESSES THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. OVERALL, THIS REMAINS A
FAIRLY MARGINAL, LOW CONFIDENCE WIND EVENT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS,
WHICH SEVERAL PARAMETERS VERY CLOSE TO TYPICAL THRESHOLDS NEEDED TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS. 700-MB WINDS ARE AROUND 45 TO 50 KNOTS, WITH
MSLP GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AROUND 3-5MB. 700-MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS FROM CRAIG TO CASPER ARE ONLY AROUND 40 TO 45M, WHICH IS
QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IDEAL FOR A WIND EVENT. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS
MIXED, WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND 50% FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE, BUT ONLY AROUND 20% FOR THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN
AREA. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING WATCHES TO
WARNINGS, BUT NOTING THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL, AND MAY ONLY
BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH OR SO MONDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WIND PRONE AREAS, WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING ASCENDING MOTION OVER MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BREAK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING, PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL MOSTLY BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F COOLER THAN
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS ONE MAY INCREASE WINDS AGAIN, BUT THE BEST SUBSIDENCE LOOKS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH WIND PROBABILITIES TUESDAY MORNING ARE
ONLY AROUND 10% OR LESS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
LONG TERM REMAINS QUIET OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TUESDAY IS THE
BUSIEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND A QUICK GLANCING SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES - WHILE COOLER
COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND, HIGHS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WILL BE IN NO
WAY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS WEAK FORCING ALONGSIDE PITIFUL PWAT
VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN A SUPER QUICK AND
LIGHT HIT OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS COULD ALSO BE
BREEZY, BUT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MEAGER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PALTRY, WITH IN HOUSE GUIDANCE PRODUCING A 25% PROBABILITY FOR
HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR ARLINGTON AT BEST. AND THEN BEYOND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
STRENGTHENS, BRINGING US BACK UP TO NOTABLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. WITH SUCH CONSISTENCY AND HOW MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH WARMER AIRMASSES IN THE REGION, DID A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS CHEYENNE
NOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FOR A DAILY RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60'S, PUTTING US 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER
THURSDAY, THE HIGH ELONGATES ALLOWING US TO "COOL" DOWN A FEW
DEGREES, BUT WE'LL STILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 50'S TO 60'S WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY. WINTER REMAINS
NOWHERE TO BE SEEN AS OUR WEATHER PATTERN FEELS MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN WINTER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH THE HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OVER SE WY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST MONDAY
FOR WYZ106-116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...JG
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