855
FXUS65 KCYS 021104
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE WIND
PRONE AREAS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
FEBRUARY WILL CONTINUE TO START OFF ON A FAIRLY QUIET NOTE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S AFTER ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID-
40S TO MID-50S TODAY. LOOKING CLOSER AT TODAY, MAINLY THIS MORNING,
700MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE CWA AS WE REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 700MB HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA AND A 700MB LOW
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT, AN INCREASED 700MB
HAS DEVELOPED, BETWEEN ABOUT 45 TO 50KTS. THIS IS A TOUCH WEAKER
THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY BY MODELS, THEREFORE, THE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE YET TO VERIFY. HOWEVER, A STRONGER PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
IS MODELED BY THE GFS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 12Z, WHICH LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE WIND PRONES TO SEE HIGH WINDS THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE, KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
8AM, AS THIS IS WHEN THE BEST 700MB JET AND SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE BACK TO LESS ELEVATED CRITERIA. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINS VERY MILD
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST LOCATIONS ARE
SITTING IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS' LOWS
IN THE 20S AND 30S. WEAKER DOWNSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW- TO MID-50S ONCE AGAIN.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY,
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
20 TO 25% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING
THESE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, FIRE SPREAD BECOMES MORE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TODAY. AS OF NOW, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
MET ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, BUT ELEVATED CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 50+% WITH RECOVERIES AS
HIGH AS 80% POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS LOOK
TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE IS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT THE NOSE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO INCREASED RISING MOTION IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. THIS INCREASED RIDING MOTION SHOULD ENABLE A FEW ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING, DUE TO BROAD UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT A
LIGHT DUSTING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH MAYBE 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND SUBSEQUENT
SUBSIDENCE, MOVE OVERHEAD, CUTTING OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LONG TERM REMAINS QUIET OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TUESDAY IS THE BUSIEST DAY
OF THE LONG TERM, WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS AND A QUICK GLANCING SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA.
FOR TEMPERATURES - WHILE COOLER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND, HIGHS
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH ON TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL BE IN NO WAY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS WEAK FORCING
ALONGSIDE PITIFUL PWAT VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE
THAN A SUPER QUICK AND LIGHT HIT OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS COULD ALSO
BE BREEZY, BUT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MEAGER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PALTRY, WITH IN HOUSE GUIDANCE PRODUCING A 25% PROBABILITY FOR HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR ARLINGTON AT BEST. AND THEN BEYOND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US STRENGTHENS, BRINGING US
BACK UP TO NOTABLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH SUCH
CONSISTENCY AND HOW MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WARMER AIRMASSES IN
THE REGION, DID A SLIGHT INCREASE ON HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, WITH
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CHEYENNE NOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FOR A DAILY
RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60'S, PUTTING US 20+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THURSDAY, THE HIGH ELONGATES ALLOWING US
TO "COOL" DOWN A FEW DEGREES, BUT WE'LL STILL REMAIN 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50'S TO 60'S WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. WINTER REMAINS NOWHERE TO BE SEEN AS OUR WEATHER PATTERN FEELS
MORE LIKE SPRING THAN WINTER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT NEAR KSNY
UNTIL 15Z. AFTER 15Z, GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ106-116-
117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM/CG
AVIATION...AM
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