435
FXUS65 KCYS 022330
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
430 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW, A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS AND WILL BRIEFLY BRING MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER TO REGION, BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY. A QUICK HIT FROM THE
700MB JET BETWEEN 06-18Z COUPLED WITH SOME FAVORABLE DOWNWARD
OMEGA VALUES AROUND ARLINGTON COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS, POSSIBLY NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL
CRITERIA (58+), BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS
TIME. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE ONLY MAXES THE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS
LOCATION AT AROUND 50%, AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BRIEFLY JUMP UP
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z, BUT
NOT NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF
THIS, HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR JUST THE
ARLINGTON ZONE FROM 09-15Z ON TUESDAY, WITH THE INTENTION THAT
IF CONFIDENCE GROWS WITH THE NEXT SUITE OF MODELS IT CAN BE
UPGRADED, OTHERWISE IT CAN BE LEFT UP IN CASE WINDS ARE ABLE TO
SURPRISE US. GIVEN RECENT EVENTS THOUGH, ERRING TOWARDS THIS
ONE NOT BEING STRONG ENOUGH, BUT THIS REGION IS KNOWN FOR IT'S
SURPRISES WHEN IT COMES TO WINDS.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS WITH MEAGER FORCING ACCOMPANYING. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE
ASIDE FROM FORCING IS THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (AROUND 0.2-0.3"), SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. TOTAL QPF AND SNOWFALL IS
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS
IN THE SIERRA-MADRE RANGE, SO EXPECT A FEW QUICK TRACES OF SNOW
FROM THIS RANGE EASTWARDS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WITH AN
ISOLATED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATION PERHAPS NEARING A HALF INCH IF
A HEAVIER BAND CAN DEVELOP, BUT WINTER ISN'T EXPECTED TO MAKE A
GRAND RETURN. FINALLY THIS COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN, BUT WE'RE GOING TO STILL BE AROUND 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
THE LONG TERM CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY REMARKABLY BENIGN WEATHER. A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS
CONDIITONS DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY.
700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ABOVE
ACCORDING TO NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S, LEADING TO PLEASANT, BUT FAR
FROM SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. THE FRONT SHOULD BE HERE BY 15Z WHEN THE CLOUD
CEILINGS DROP AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION START OCCURRING
FOR THE PANHANDLE. THERE'S IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND OR STAY AS VIRGA AS
THE DRY LAYER SEEMS TO STAY PUT. BUT WITH THE WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION THE VIRGA/PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MM
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