203
FXUS65 KCYS 031004
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
304 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN AREA.
- DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. NORTHERN PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5000 FEET. EXPECT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH PWATS HARDLY INCREASING AT ALL THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND LITTLE TO
NO MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MODELS ALSO SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER PRETTY UNSTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 25 TO 100 J/KG. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRESENT,
MAINLY FROM LOW LEVEL WINDS INFLUENCED BY THE LOCAL TERRAIN,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE/I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST,
VERY LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DUE TO
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL-LIKE BANDS
OF SNOW. HRRR SHOWS A FEW OF THESE BANDS NEAR THE CHEYENNE,
SCOTTSBLUFF, AND KIMBALL AREAS...WITH GREAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH LIKELY. THESE WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF, BUT IMPACTFUL, 1/2 MILE
VISIBILITY OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BRIEF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LOW AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. EXPECT
THESE HIGH TEMPS TO BE BRIEF AND LOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THICK
CLOUD COVER AND/OR PRECIPITATION.
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ALL
MODELS SHOW A RETURN OF THE SEEMINGLY (AT LEAST FOR THIS WINTER)
SEMI-PERMANANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION AND FRONT RANGE BY THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
NEARING 70 (F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO +3C ABOVE THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE A PRETTY NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH SUNNY
SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
THE LONG TERM CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY REMARKABLY BENIGN WEATHER. A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS
CONDIITONS DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND ABOVE ACCORDING TO NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA. HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S,
LEADING TO PLEASANT, BUT FAR FROM SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
THE FRONT SHOULD BE HERE BY 15Z WHEN THE CLOUD CEILINGS DROP
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION START OCCURRING FOR THE
PANHANDLE. THERE'S IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND OR STAY AS VIRGA AS THE DRY
LAYER SEEMS TO STAY PUT. BUT WITH THE WARM AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION THE VIRGA/PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. KCDR LOOKS TO
BE THE BEST BET FOR PRECIPITATION TO HIT THE GROUND SO A PROB30
WAS ADDED TO THE TAF. THE REST OF THE REGION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MM
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