289
FXUS65 KCYS 031145
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN AREA.
- DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. NORTHERN PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5000 FEET. EXPECT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH PWATS HARDLY INCREASING AT ALL THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND LITTLE TO
NO MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MODELS ALSO SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER PRETTY UNSTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 25 TO 100 J/KG. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRESENT,
MAINLY FROM LOW LEVEL WINDS INFLUENCED BY THE LOCAL TERRAIN,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE/I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST,
VERY LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DUE TO
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL-LIKE BANDS
OF SNOW. HRRR SHOWS A FEW OF THESE BANDS NEAR THE CHEYENNE,
SCOTTSBLUFF, AND KIMBALL AREAS...WITH GREAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH LIKELY. THESE WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF, BUT IMPACTFUL, 1/2 MILE
VISIBILITY OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BRIEF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LOW AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. EXPECT
THESE HIGH TEMPS TO BE BRIEF AND LOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THICK
CLOUD COVER AND/OR PRECIPITATION.
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ALL
MODELS SHOW A RETURN OF THE SEEMINGLY (AT LEAST FOR THIS WINTER)
SEMI-PERMANANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION AND FRONT RANGE BY THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
NEARING 70 (F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO +3C ABOVE THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE A PRETTY NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH SUNNY
SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
THE LONG TERM CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY REMARKABLY BENIGN WEATHER. A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS
CONDIITONS DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND ABOVE ACCORDING TO NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA. HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S,
LEADING TO PLEASANT, BUT FAR FROM SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 40 KNOTS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY 17Z. KEPT VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING SINCE CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW
4000 FEET AGL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS OF SNOW LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON (17Z TUES TO 01Z WED), BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR
KCYS, KLAR, KBFF, AND KCDR.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...TJT
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