089
FXUS65 KCYS 171807
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1107 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ALL OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY FOR GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
- CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET. A WINTER
STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT.
- SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW SQUALLS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SAME LOCATION WEDNESDAY.
- SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW
CHANGES MADE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CURRENTLY,
LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE WELL-ADVERTIZED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SET TO ARRIVE IN THE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED
BETWEEN 58 TO 63 MPH OVER CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY, WESTERN ALBANY
COUNTY, AND THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN WIND PRONE ZONE ALONG
INTERSTATE 80. TIMING OF THIS EVENT, SO FAR, LOOKS GOOD WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 4 TO
6 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTY. HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE (NAMNEST AND HRRR) CONTINUE
TO SHOW BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS MOVING INTO THE COUNTIES BETWEEN 400
AM AND 700 AM LOCAL TIME, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY BAND
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL REFLECTIVELY AND QPF NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT STILL SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS
IMPACTING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AS THIS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ONCE THE
BANDS OF SNOW/SQUALLS REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE LARAMIE RANGE,
THEY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAST DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER, NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED THAT THE SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW
SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH
RECENT MODEL TRENDS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THIS POTENTIAL HAS
ALSO SHOWED UP IN SOME OF THE SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE DATA, LIKELY
RELATING TO TERRAIN-RELATED CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.
HIGH WIND AND CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. THE LAST
PART OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, AND 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING, WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
MET, AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INCLUDING DOUGLAS TO CHUGWATER.
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF
RAWLINS...BUT PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR DUE TO
PEAK LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING AT NIGHT INSTEAD OF
DURING THE DAYTIME. HOWEVER, GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
600 MB MAY MAKE UP FOR THIS. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING (UP TO THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS) AND ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL
EXPECT VERY LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 60 TO 70 MPH. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SO FAR THIS
MORNING HAVEN'T BEEN TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD AND HAVE MOSTLY BEEN
CONFINED TO PLATTE AND CONVERSE COUNTY. AGAIN, IF THERE ANY
IGNITIONS TODAY, THE FIRE MAY SPREAD VERY RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
CONSIDERABLY STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, MOUNTAIN WINTER
STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK TO
BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, EVEN IN-BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, WITH
DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME REMAINING INSTABILITY. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW THUNDER
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING, LIKELY RELATED TO THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW
SQUALLS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDER IN THESE
AREAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
NEXT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH IT AS 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -15C TO
-20C...SO PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. DECIDED FOCUS ON ONE
SYSTEM AT A TIME SO OUR CURRENT MESSAGING ISN'T LOST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE GETTING CLOSE TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AMOUNTS WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW FORMING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AXIS. KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POP BETWEEN 50 TO 80
PERCENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM, INCLUDING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND
QUICK DRYOUT OVER THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, A PASSING PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES OUR CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING ANOTHER SHOT AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
BEYOND THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT BEING SAID, ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNSURPRISINGLY COMING IN ON
THE LOW SIDE, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN A A HALF AN
INCH 20% OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR WESTERN
ZONES. BUT THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND WILL
ACTUALLY DROP US TO HIGHS THAT ARE BELOW AVERAGE FOR A CHANGE,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30'S TO 40'S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY IN THE WIDESPREAD
40'S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR
UNDER RIDGING THAT WILL BE TAKING BACK OVER, BUT LOOK FOR SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FINALLY OUR
USUAL WINDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT GUIDANCE ISN'T QUITE AS EXCITED FOR HIGH WINDS AS
COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WITH IN HOUSE
GUIDANCE ONLY MAXING AT AROUND 30% PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WINDS AT
ARLINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MINIMAL
PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER SHOT AT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA, BUT LESSENING IMPACTS
OUTSIDE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE WARMING RETURNS AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ANY SITES THAT RECEIVE SNOW, RELEGATED TO THE
WYOMING SITES, WHERE VIS AND/OR CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO MVFR TO
IFR STATUS, LOCALLY LIFR UNDER HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 40-60 KNOTS ALL
SITES, BUT LESSENING TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHTER INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY RESUME TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. OVERALL CIGS SHOULD
BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL, OR SKC AS THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT THESE
ENHANCED CONDITIONS MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-
430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ102-104-
105-108>111-113-119.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-106-
107-115>118.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ110.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ434>437.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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