255
FXUS65 KCYS 172333
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ALL OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY FOR GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK, MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET. A WINTER
STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT.
- SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW SQUALLS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SAME LOCATION WEDNESDAY.
- SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
HIGH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MOST ZONES ALREADY VERIFYING. PEAK GUSTS HAVE MAXED
OUT AT OVER 80 MPH, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 70 MPH AS WELL! HIGH
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AS WINDS ALOFT CREEP UP TO 60 KTS AS MSLP GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA
STEEPEN. HIGH WINDS IN BOTH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WINDS
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH WIND WARNINGS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE ON TIME, IF NOT CANCELLED A BIT EARLIER. BESIDES THE WIND,
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS FURTHER WEST SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE LINGERING
THROUGH THE EVENING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SNOW SQUALLS.
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
HI-RES GUIDANCE ENDING SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. MOUNTAIN
SNOW FOR THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS/SQUALLS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, LEESIDE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER AGREEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FORMING IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ADVECTING SOLID MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THESE AREAS COULD LEAD TO DECENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE
WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE RATHER SMALL, LASTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS. BOTH
HAVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE PINE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM DOUGLAS TO CHADRON. MODELS LIKE THE HRRR
AND GFS ALSO SHOW GOOD QPF IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, SO AREAS
FROM ROUGHLY TORRINGTON TO ALLIANCE COULD ALSO PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE LOWEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR IN BOTH SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
HAS MORE DRY AIR AND LESS MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS, LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME NORTHERN ZONES, DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND RED FLAG WARNINGS ALREADY BEING IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING THE LONG
DURATION SNOW EVENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 30 DEGREES IN NORTHERLY
WINDS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
LONG TERM BEGINS ACTIVE AS WE SEE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING SOME MORE CHANCES OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONGSIDE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE HIGH
WINDS, WITH RIDGING THEN RETURNING AND BRINGING WHAT ELSE -
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND
START NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY EVENING BEGINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE, WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING
OVER EARLY FRIDAY, BUT BY FRIDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM
A DEEPER LOW IN CANADA WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA, BUT A THIRD SHORTWAVE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN LOW
WILL RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND JUST GRAZE OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RIDGING THEN BECOMES THE DOMINANT
FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERHAPS ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
RIDING THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY BUT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES.
BASED ON THIS PATTERN, THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL INVOLVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES, AND WINDS. FOR
PRECIPITATION - WHILE NOT A GUARANTEED CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA,
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO RISE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING EVEN
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF OUR
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ZONES, THE NBM NOW PAINTS A 20-40%
PROBABILITY OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS WHEATLAND AND SCOTTSBLUFF.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE COLD FOR ONCE THIS WINTER, WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD AT OR BELOW FREEZING (HARD TO
BELIEVE, RIGHT?). HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30'S TO LOW 40'S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PUTTING US BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS ALSO WILL PROMOTE VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS, INCLUDING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEGATIVES, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEGATIVES. SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO START NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, WE'LL BE BACK UP
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGING AND WARMTH FINALLY CATCH BACK
UP, WITH 50'S BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS AROUND AND
EAST OF I-25, AND LONG RANGE MODELS JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM
INDICATING 60'S BY TUESDAY. FINALLY, THE PASSING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE AT SOME ENHANCED WINDS, BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO CONSIDER HIGH WIND EVENTS
CURRENTLY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE ONLY PEAKS AT A 40% PROBABILITY OF
HIGH WINDS AT THAT TIME, AND BOTH 700MB WINDS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AREN'T QUITE WHAT WE'D LIKE TO SEE TO PROMOTE A
STRONGER WIND EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ANY SITES THAT RECEIVE SNOW, RELEGATED TO THE
WYOMING SITES, WHERE VIS AND/OR CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO MVFR TO
IFR STATUS, LOCALLY LIFR UNDER HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 40-60 KNOTS ALL
SITES, BUT LESSENING TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHTER INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY RESUME TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. OVERALL CIGS SHOULD
BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL, OR SKC AS THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT THESE
ENHANCED CONDITIONS MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-
430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ102-104-
105-108>111-113-119.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-106-
107-115>118.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ110.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ434>437.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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