907
FXUS65 KCYS 181006
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
306 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY,
MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET. A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT.
- SNOW SQUALLS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING, INCLUDING DOUGLAS AND LUSK, STARTING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
FIRST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OF A "SET" HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
DECEPTIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AND ANY RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE SECOND POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER TODAY, AND POSSIBLY
A THIRD ONE ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL LOOKING LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS HOUR.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND SHOW THIS TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SURFACE, 00Z
MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO,
NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN
WYOMING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH PRETTY MUCH RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THUS, THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH (WHICH HAS BEEN THE EXCEPTION
TO THE RULE THIS WINTER IT SEEMS) AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING. THE ONLY DETAIL THAT IS GOING TO BE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND NEAR- WINTER
STORM CRITERIA IS THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW. AS OF RIGHT NOW, SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY IN THEIR WEAKENING PHASE
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO TAKES ON A MORE WEST
TO EAST MOTION ACROSS THE PLAINS, INSTEAD OF A MORE PREFERRED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ROUTE IN THE SAME AREA.
FOR THIS MORNING, EXPECT SNOW TO REDEVELOP ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, SO
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SNOW SQUALL OR SQUALL-LIKE IN
NATURE WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND 100 J/KG TO 300 J/KG
OF CAPE TO WORK. AN AREA OF MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA TODAY ENHANCING THE RISK.
PREFERRED TO HANDLE THIS HAZARD WITH SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS
INSTEAD OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES SINCE WE HAD SIMILAR
CONDITIONS YESTERDAY WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SURFACE
ACCUMULATION. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY
WITH THE COLDER AIR, BUT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF CARBON COUNTY. STILL, 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO 3 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW SNOTEL SITES ALREADY NEAR 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH MORE ON THE WAY AND STARTING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST, ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE, CONVERSE & NIOBRARA COUNTIES STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS
SHOW A PERSISTENT AXIS OF CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF THE
N. LARAMIE RANGE. WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW, A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6+ INCHES.
HOWEVER, WITH HOW FAST THE SURFACE LOW AND PRECIPITATION MOVES
TO THE EAST, BELIEVE THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
BRIEF.
FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAVE
THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS,
ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDS FROM THE NAMNEST AND HRRR HAVE GENERALLY
SHOWED A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AND EXTENDS THIS
AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WHILE HIGH RES GUIDANCE PUTS THE BULLS EYE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. GUESSING THAT THE NAM IS EXPECTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
AND A DEEPER SURFACE LOW, BUT NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF THAT IN
THE OTHER MODEL OUTPUT. WE STILL HAVE SOME EXTRA TIME BEFORE
THE SNOW STARTS, SO DECIDED TO GIVE THE NEXT SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK
AT IT BEFORE DECIDING ON ADVISORY AS OPPOSED TO WINTER STORM
WARNING. FOR NOW, KEPT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PINE
RIDGE WITH FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOST MODELS
SHOWING THE TROWEL HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR A LONGER DURATION.
FURTHER SOUTH, KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO
MAYBE 2 INCHES AT BEST, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNSLOPE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS
THESE SYSTEMS TEND TO BE TRICKY AND MAY CHANGE AT THE LAST
MINUTE.
SPEAKING OF WINDS(!) IN-HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TOOK A NOTICEABLE UPWARD TREND
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, MAINLY OVER THE I-80
SUMMIT/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE, WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SIGNAL OVER
THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW
RAPIDLY THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES TONIGHT. ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE I-80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND
65 MPH. KEEP IN MIND, IF THIS SURFACE LOW FAILS TO DEVELOP
AND/OR INTENSIFY, WINDS MAY BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER IN THIS AREA.
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AND REDEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER THIS WEEK. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HANGING ONTO LIGHT
SNOW INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES MAY SET
UP A VERY COLD NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST
LOWS BELOW ZERO. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, SO NOT THINKING ABOUT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (FOR WIND CHILL) QUITE YET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
LONG TERM BEGINS ACTIVE AS WE SEE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING SOME MORE CHANCES OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONGSIDE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE HIGH
WINDS, WITH RIDGING THEN RETURNING AND BRINGING WHAT ELSE -
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND
START NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY EVENING BEGINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE, WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING
OVER EARLY FRIDAY, BUT BY FRIDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM
A DEEPER LOW IN CANADA WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA, BUT A THIRD SHORTWAVE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN LOW
WILL RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND JUST GRAZE OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RIDGING THEN BECOMES THE DOMINANT
FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERHAPS ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
RIDING THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY BUT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES.
BASED ON THIS PATTERN, THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL INVOLVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES, AND WINDS. FOR
PRECIPITATION - WHILE NOT A GUARANTEED CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA,
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO RISE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING EVEN
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF OUR
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ZONES, THE NBM NOW PAINTS A 20-40%
PROBABILITY OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS WHEATLAND AND SCOTTSBLUFF.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE COLD FOR ONCE THIS WINTER, WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD AT OR BELOW FREEZING (HARD TO
BELIEVE, RIGHT?). HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30'S TO LOW 40'S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PUTTING US BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS ALSO WILL PROMOTE VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS, INCLUDING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEGATIVES, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEGATIVES. SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO START NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, WE'LL BE BACK UP
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGING AND WARMTH FINALLY CATCH BACK
UP, WITH 50'S BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS AROUND AND
EAST OF I-25, AND LONG RANGE MODELS JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM
INDICATING 60'S BY TUESDAY. FINALLY, THE PASSING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE AT SOME ENHANCED WINDS, BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO CONSIDER HIGH WIND EVENTS
CURRENTLY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE ONLY PEAKS AT A 40% PROBABILITY OF
HIGH WINDS AT THAT TIME, AND BOTH 700MB WINDS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AREN'T QUITE WHAT WE'D LIKE TO SEE TO PROMOTE A
STRONGER WIND EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KRWL IS EXPECTED TO START SNOWING AROUND 14Z WITH STARTS TIMES
AROUND SHIFTING TO THE AFTERNOON FOR KLAR AND KCYS AFTER 19Z.
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ISN'T EXPECTED TO RECEIVED ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ROLL BACK IN AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL START AT VFR AND THEN POSSIBLY
DROP INTO MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES IN THE PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ114.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...MM
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