121
FXUS65 KCYS 192320
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
420 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES ALONGSIDE SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO HIGHLIGHT WORTHY FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OVERALL COLD
ALONGSIDE POSSIBLE FOG INSULATING SOME LOCATIONS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND
SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG I-80, WITH
3 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES ALSO COLD SATURDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE BREEZY
WINDS, BUT INSULATING CLOUD COVER MAY ONCE AGAIN PREVENT COLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY ALONGSIDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
LINGERING BANDS OF SNOWFALL NOTED ON BOTH RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY REMAINS LIGHT FOR OUR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES CLEARING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. HERE'S WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING - WE ALREADY
HAD OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED THANKS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THIS SNOW
PACK WILL NATURALLY IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND ALONGSIDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD SEE LOWS BOTTOM
OUT ONCE AGAIN. THE PROBLEM IS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW WE DID HAVE, AND ISN'T BRINGING OUR LOW
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE. BLENDING IN THE
10TH PERCENTILE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB IN PRODUCING THE EXPECTED LOWS WE MIGHT SEE, WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH A
FEW SITES EXPECTED AS LOW AS THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS. THAT
BEING SAID, THE ONE PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE ONSET
OF FOG IN THE PANHANDLE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ANY, THIS
COULD WORK TO INSULATE LOCATIONS AND PREVENT COLDER TEMPERATURES
FROM FORMING. BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH FOG WILL BE ABLE
TO FORM, HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW, BUT ALSO DID MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY, WHILE ON
THE FENCE FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, WITH HOW WEAK WINDS ARE,
IT DOESN'T FEEL LIKE WE CAN JUSTIFY THEM CURRENTLY. BUT DON'T
BE SURPRISED IF A SITE OR TWO SEES A FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE OF
-20 LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF ON THE QUIET SIDE, BUT A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH, INCLUDING THE MOST NOTABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE, BUT THE REGION WON'T FULLY MISS OUT ON
THE ACTION, AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, PRIMARILY THE I-80 CORRIDOR, STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH
AROUND 0.5-2 INCHES, BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 3-4 INCHES OF
FRESH POWDER. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN, THOUGH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL BE BUILDING WHICH
COULD AID YET AGAIN IN WIDESPREAD FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NEGATIVES, POSSIBLY NEARING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY VALUES OF -20
ONCE AGAIN. THAT BEING SAID, CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
INSULATE THE REGION, LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY ONCE AGAIN ON
IF WE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS. AND THEN ON
SATURDAY WE'LL SEE WINDS RISE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR STRONGER WINDS LIE TO OUR
EAST, MAKING GUSTY BUT NOT HIGH WIND WARNING (58+ MPH) LEVEL
CRITERIA EXPECTED. FINALLY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE AS
RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE OVER, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY REMAINING
SUB-FREEZING, BUT BY SATURDAY RETURNING TO THE 30'S AND 40'S AS
A WARMING TREND BEGINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
ON MONDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY,
PLACING OUR CWA IN A BROAD WNW FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 60 DEGREES EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE GIVEN ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING.
TO BE EXPECTED, THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN OUR WINDS. AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING CROSS-BARRIER
FLOW RELATIVE TO THE LARAMIE RANGE, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP
UP ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, WITH 700 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50
KNOTS. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF HIGH
WINDS WILL BE IN THE USUAL WIND-PRONE AREAS (BORDEAUX AND
ARLINGTON), WITH PROBABILITIES OF 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 60-
80%. A CLASSIC MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE HIGH WIND CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, ALTHOUGH
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
AS A SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
COME TO AN END FOR KRWL, KCDR, AND KAIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL LIFT AND THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE A RETURN BY 19Z FRIDAY AND MAINLY IMPACT
KLAR, KCYS, AND KSNY AT THIS TIME. SO, A PROB30 GROUP WAS
INTRODUCED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WINDS ACROSS ALL SITES WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSE NO AVIATION THREAT AS THEY REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RZ
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