419
FXUS65 KCYS 200839
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
139 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES ALONGSIDE SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO HIGHLIGHT WORTHY FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OVERALL COLD
ALONGSIDE POSSIBLE FOG INSULATING SOME LOCATIONS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND
SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG I-80, WITH
3 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES ALSO COLD SATURDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE BREEZY
WINDS, BUT INSULATING CLOUD COVER MAY ONCE AGAIN PREVENT COLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY ALONGSIDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGING ALL THE WEATHER TO THE REGION SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT, BUT THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS STARTING TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHWESTERN CARBON COUNTY AS OF 08Z THIS
MORNING. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED, WITH MANY SEEING OVERCAST SKIES BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CLOSED 700MB LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MOST
MODELS ARE ONBOARD WITH A MORE SOUTHERN LOW, LEADING TO LESSER
IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ALONG I-80, WILL PRODUCE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST MOIST,
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST STARTING BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z THIS MORNING.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS I-80 WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
START OVER SOUTHWESTERN CARBON COUNTY AND SPREAD EAST AND SLIGHTLY
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE I-80 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO SEE
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL STRUGGLE
TO SEE ANY SNOWFALL, LEADING TO A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
FROM THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER NORTH TOWARDS A LINE FROM RAWLINS
EAST TO SCOTTSBLUFF. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN VERY COLD, WITH ALLIANCE
CURRENTLY SITTING AT -10F AS OF 08Z. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE,
THANKFULLY, NOT DROPPED TOO FAR INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. TWO
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -20F, BUT WITH ONLY TWO
SITES HITTING EXTREME COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SITES ARE NOT
IN THE SAME ZONES, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTREME COLD PRODUCTS
AS THE -20F WIND CHILLS ARE NOT OVERLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 20S DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
I-80. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BE SITUATED TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE THE CWA STRONG WINDS. A
FEW BREEZY LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH STRONG GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING,IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE NEGATIVES ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SATURDAY. A 700MB SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS, LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING
700MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN ELEVATED
WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH BREEZY, WESTERLY WINDS COMES WARMER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S
EVERYWHERE. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES FULLY OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER-
30S TO 40S EVERYWHERE, SIGNALING THE START TO A STRONG WARMING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ON MONDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY,
PLACING OUR CWA IN A BROAD WNW FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 60 DEGREES EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE GIVEN ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING.
TO BE EXPECTED, THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN OUR WINDS. AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING CROSS-BARRIER
FLOW RELATIVE TO THE LARAMIE RANGE, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP
UP ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, WITH 700 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50
KNOTS. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF HIGH
WINDS WILL BE IN THE USUAL WIND-PRONE AREAS (BORDEAUX AND
ARLINGTON), WITH PROBABILITIES OF 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 60-
80%. A CLASSIC MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE HIGH WIND CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, ALTHOUGH
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN BY 13Z, PRIMARILY IMPACTING OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AND BY 18Z, KLAR,
KCYS, AND KSNY COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME, ONLY
EXPECTING AVIATION CONDITIONS TO DIP DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. WINDS ACROSS ALL SITES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10
KNOTS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...NB/AM
AVIATION...RZ
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