479
FXUS65 KCYS 202125
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
225 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG I-80, WITH 3 TO 5
ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES ALSO COLD SATURDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE BREEZY
WINDS, BUT INSULATING CLOUD COVER MAY ONCE AGAIN PREVENT COLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT CLOUDS ARE AT LEAST OVERSPREADING EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. MOVING INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS, HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STILL EXPECTING SIMILAR RESULTS TO WHAT
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CALLING FOR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS -
LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR,
AND GENERALLY AROUND 0.5 - 2 INCHES EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS WHERE 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ALSO HAD TO BE
TWEAKED, WITH DOUGLAS MUCH COLDER THAN EXPECTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT THAT COULD IMPACT LOWS DRAMATICALLY AND,
COMBINED WITH WINDS, WILL CREATE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THAT
COULD APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STATUS. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT, ANTICIPATING THAT A SITE OR TWO WILL GET THIS COLD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA, BUT NOT ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL, AS WE SEE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND THE 30'S
TO 40'S, ADDED BY CLEARING SKIES AND SUNSHINE THAT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO ASSIST IN MELTING SOME OF OUR SNOWPACK. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 40'S ON SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ONCE
AGAIN, CONTINUING TO REMOVE THE SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE NIL UNDER THE BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN, THOUGH SOME BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT WE'RE USED TO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
STICKING TO THE THEME OF THIS WINTER SEASON, THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL START OUT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S. THIS IS ALL THANKS
TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DAMPEN, PLACING THE CWA IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
THE MAIN STORY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WIND. IN-
HOUSE RANDOM FOREST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT,
WITH GREATER THAN 60% LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN
THE HIGH WIND HOT SPOTS SUCH AS ARLINGTON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SNOWY RANGE. EVEN CHEYENNE AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN IMPACTFUL WIND
EVENT. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE BREAKS IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, AND IS ALSO SEEN ON THE
OMEGA FIELDS WHICH ARE INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (THOUGH STILL 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE), AND YET ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SEEM TO RELAX
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN A WNW FLOW REGIME ALIGNED WITH A 65-70 KNOT 700 MB JET.
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR
THE THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH THE ANY MOISTURE LIKELY BEING
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR
CLASSIFYING MUCH OF OUR CWA AS BEING IN EITHER SEVERE OR EXTREME
DROUGHT, THE PROSPECT OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THOSE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL ABOUT
20-21Z WITH THE "HEAVIER" SNOW SHOWING UP AROUND 00/01Z. THESE
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE WHEN SNOW MA ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
RADAR DOES SHOW SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH MAY IMPACT KLAR A LITTLE BIT EARLIER. OTHERWISE THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLAR, KCYS, AND KSNY. CLOUDS
MAY DROP INTO MVFR RANGE WHILE SNOWING BUT MVFR CELINGS AREN'T
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 2SM
PREDOMINANTLY BUT VISIBILITIES UNDER 1SM MAY OCCUR IN BRIEF
INSTANCES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND POSSIBLY
VARIABLE BUT BY 15Z SATURDAY THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP.
HOWEVER, KRWL MAY GUST AS EARLY AS 12Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...MM
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