836
FXUS65 KCYS 211154
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE
BREEZY WINDS, BUT INSULATING CLOUD COVER MAY ONCE AGAIN
PREVENT COLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE 10.3-3.9 UM FOG PRODUCTS
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-80 WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE, JUST LOW CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ANY REMNANT LIGHT SNOW HAS DIMINISHED
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO KEPT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
ZERO THROUGH SUNRISE. CLOUDS AND ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NOT AS COLD AS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLOWLY INTO THE 30S
OR AROUND 30 IN THE COLDER VALLEYS WITH A CURRENT SNOW PACK.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING OVER SOME OF THE
WIND PRONE AREAS, BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AT THIS
TIME. OTHER THAN THAT, SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF I-80.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY A MELTING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
REGION. ON SUNDAY, 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE -5C WITH HIGHS AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COLD MORNING SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS, BUT NOT AS COLD MONDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WITH
INCREASING MELTING OF SNOW PACK, AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE AREA, THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF FOG. SREF VIS < 3 MILES
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST (~30% TO 40%) OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND MOST OF THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE,
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 0C ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 40S AND 50S. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO LINGERING SNOWPACK, SO KEPT HIGHS
AROUND THE 25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 140 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION LOOK ON TRACK WITH A WINDY WEEK
LOOKING LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER THE WIND
PRONE AREAS WITH ALL IN-HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH
PROBABILITIES FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR FOR THE SUB-WIND PRONE AREAS AND THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH BRIEF/LIMITED LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE SUB-WIND PRONE AREAS AND THE EASTERN WYOMING HIGH
PLAINS WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
STICKING TO THE THEME OF THIS WINTER SEASON, THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL START OUT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S. THIS IS ALL THANKS
TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DAMPEN, PLACING THE CWA IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
THE MAIN STORY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WIND. IN-
HOUSE RANDOM FOREST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT,
WITH GREATER THAN 60% LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN
THE HIGH WIND HOT SPOTS SUCH AS ARLINGTON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SNOWY RANGE. EVEN CHEYENNE AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN IMPACTFUL WIND
EVENT. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE BREAKS IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, AND IS ALSO SEEN ON THE
OMEGA FIELDS WHICH ARE INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (THOUGH STILL 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE), AND YET ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SEEM TO RELAX
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN A WNW FLOW REGIME ALIGNED WITH A 65-70 KNOT 700 MB JET.
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR
THE THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH THE ANY MOISTURE LIKELY BEING
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR
CLASSIFYING MUCH OF OUR CWA AS BEING IN EITHER SEVERE OR EXTREME
DROUGHT, THE PROSPECT OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY.
OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
TERMINALS. PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS LINGERING LOW CIGS
AND FOG FOR KAIA AND KSNY. KSNY WIND DIRECTION HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED
INTO THE WEST, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. ADDED VCFG AND A LOW SCT DECK FOR KAIA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL 14Z.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...WFOCYS/TJT
AVIATION...TJT
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