994
FXUS65 KCYS 212320
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
420 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE
BREEZY WINDS, BUT INSULATING CLOUD COVER MAY ONCE AGAIN
PREVENT COLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY WILL MARK THE START OF A RAPID WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE USHERS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS GRADUALLY PUSHED OUT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE, WHILE TEMPERATURES OUT WEST WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 30S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN WYOMING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MONDAY WILL BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE 0C. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY, MEANING MONDAY WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW AREAS
AT LOWER ELEVATION COULD SNEAK INTO THE LOW 60S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
BAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
STARTING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A BROAD BUT SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS TRAVERSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVIDENCES
COMPRESSING AND SOMEWHAT SHIFTING THE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE SHIFT WILL PUT THE 500MB JETSTREAM RIGHT OVER THE
STATES OF MONTANA AND WYOMING PLACING US IN WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TIGHTENING THE 700MB SHORTWAVE. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN OUR WEEK OF POSSIBLE/ TO PROBABLE HIGH WINDS FOR OUR WIND
PRONES AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE WIND PRONES. THE 700MB JET PEAKS AT
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THEN RELAXES TO 50-55 KNOTS ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE INTENSIFYING BACK TO 65/70 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL OMEGA FIELDS THEY INDICATE
STRONG TO VERY STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BACKING OFF TO WEAK TO SEMI-STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FLOAT BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5C/KM
TO SUPPORT SOME DECENT MIXING AND ALLOWING FOR THOSE FASTER WINDS TO
MOVE TO THE SURFACE. WITH THESE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AREAS EAST OF I-25 WILL EXPERIENCE WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM -1C TO ABOUT 4-5C
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL RISE
TO THE 50-60'S FOR OUR DAILY HIGHS. THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH DRAGGING A LITTLE BIT OF THAT COLDER AIR
DOWN WITH IT BUT WITH THOSE DOWNSLOPING WINDS IT WONT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BUT COULD POTENTIALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20'S FOR THE
REGION. AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEY LOOK TO MOSTLY BE
CONTAINED TO OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS WITH THAT TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT SETS UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AT 700MB WITH THAT FIRST SHORTWAVE. WITH THE WEAK
VORTICITY STREAM ATTACHED TO THE SHORTWAVE, THE EXTRA SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON OUR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE DRY LAYER
CREATED BY THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. SO TO PLAY NICE WITH THE
NEIGHBORS I REDUCED THE POPS SLIGHTLY AND LEFT 30 PERCENT CHANCE
INTO THE GRIDS WHEN THE REALITY IS PROBABLY MUCH LOWER TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE COMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE
IS EVEN LESS PROJECTED MOISTURE THAN THE FIRST. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS THE SAME WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO HELP ALLOW
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE SURFACE, LOW POPS (SUB 20 PERCENT) WERE
KEPT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. AFTER A GUSTY DAY, WINDS WILL BE
WINDING DOWN HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RZ
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