593
FXUS65 KCYS 220824
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
124 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS, WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION SHIFTS EAST
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (UPPER 30S TO LOW TO MID 40S). CURRENT
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SNEAKING INTO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
MORNING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT MODERATING TOWARDS SUNRISE
WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH INCREASING MELTING OF SNOW PACK, AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, SOME CONCERN REMAIN FOR FOG. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AND 1 MILE HAVE
JUMPED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A FEW AREAS OVER 45% NOW. KEPT FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EXTENDED
THE AREAL COVERAGE SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MODELS NOW SHOW LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
ALL MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST AND FLATTENING OUT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 0C MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS +3C OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
TRANSLATES TO SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LOW ELEVATION SNOW PACK
MELTING BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, MODELS ALL SHOW
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING, WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH WARMING VIA DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. MAY NEED HIGH WIND
HEADLINES SHORTLY FOR AT LEAST THE WIND PRONE AREAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND CLOUD COVER, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
STARTING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A BROAD BUT SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS TRAVERSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVIDENCES
COMPRESSING AND SOMEWHAT SHIFTING THE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE SHIFT WILL PUT THE 500MB JETSTREAM RIGHT OVER THE
STATES OF MONTANA AND WYOMING PLACING US IN WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TIGHTENING THE 700MB SHORTWAVE. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN OUR WEEK OF POSSIBLE/ TO PROBABLE HIGH WINDS FOR OUR WIND
PRONES AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE WIND PRONES. THE 700MB JET PEAKS AT
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THEN RELAXES TO 50-55 KNOTS ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE INTENSIFYING BACK TO 65/70 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL OMEGA FIELDS THEY INDICATE
STRONG TO VERY STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BACKING OFF TO WEAK TO SEMI-STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FLOAT BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5C/KM
TO SUPPORT SOME DECENT MIXING AND ALLOWING FOR THOSE FASTER WINDS TO
MOVE TO THE SURFACE. WITH THESE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AREAS EAST OF I-25 WILL EXPERIENCE WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM -1C TO ABOUT 4-5C
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL RISE
TO THE 50-60'S FOR OUR DAILY HIGHS. THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH DRAGGING A LITTLE BIT OF THAT COLDER AIR
DOWN WITH IT BUT WITH THOSE DOWNSLOPING WINDS IT WONT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BUT COULD POTENTIALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20'S FOR THE
REGION. AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEY LOOK TO MOSTLY BE
CONTAINED TO OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS WITH THAT TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT SETS UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AT 700MB WITH THAT FIRST SHORTWAVE. WITH THE WEAK
VORTICITY STREAM ATTACHED TO THE SHORTWAVE, THE EXTRA SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON OUR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE DRY LAYER
CREATED BY THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. SO TO PLAY NICE WITH THE
NEIGHBORS I REDUCED THE POPS SLIGHTLY AND LEFT 30 PERCENT CHANCE
INTO THE GRIDS WHEN THE REALITY IS PROBABLY MUCH LOWER TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE COMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE
IS EVEN LESS PROJECTED MOISTURE THAN THE FIRST. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS THE SAME WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO HELP ALLOW
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE SURFACE, LOW POPS (SUB 20 PERCENT) WERE
KEPT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA,
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN KRWL WHERE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE BY 18Z SUNDAY, THE REMAINING SITES WILL HAVE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RZ
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