281
FXUS65 KCYS 222056
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
156 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR
THE USUAL SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND PRONES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
THIS AFTERNOON MARKS A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT CHILLY TODAY IN AREAS
WITH SNOW COVER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AREAS
WITHOUT SNOW PACK ARE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY MARK THE RETURN OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH, IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN, 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE ABOVE 0C, WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY. HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S,
WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECENT MELT
OFF OF SNOW, HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW COVERED
AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE USUAL SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND
PRONES, PROMPTING THE NEED FOR HIGH WIND WATCHES AS STEEPENING
GRADIENTS CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
TUESDAY, A BROAD BUT SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRAVERSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVIDENCES COMPRESSING AND SOMEWHAT
SHIFTING THE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE SHIFT WILL
PUT THE 500MB JETSTREAM RIGHT OVER THE STATES OF MONTANA AND WYOMING
PLACING US IN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TIGHTENING THE 700MB
SHORTWAVE. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL BEGIN OUR WEEK OF POSSIBLE/
TO PROBABLE HIGH WINDS FOR OUR WIND PRONES AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
WIND PRONES. THE NEW 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAS THE
700MB JET PEAK AT SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN RELAXES BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO 55-60 KNOTS
ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE JETSTREAM LOOKS
TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AS THE PEAK SPEED CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 55 KNOTS COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 50 KNOTS
BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL OMEGA FIELDS THEY INDICATE
STRONG TO VERY STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
BACKING OFF TO WEAK TO SEMI-STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FLOAT BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5C/KM
TO SUPPORT SOME DECENT MIXING AND ALLOWING FOR THOSE FASTER WINDS TO
MOVE TO THE SURFACE. WITH THESE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AREAS EAST OF I-25 WILL EXPERIENCE WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM -1C TO ABOUT 4-5C
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL RISE
TO THE 50-60'S FOR OUR DAILY HIGHS. THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH DRAGGING A LITTLE BIT OF THAT COLDER AIR
DOWN WITH IT BUT WITH THOSE DOWNSLOPING WINDS IT WONT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BUT COULD POTENTIALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20'S FOR THE
REGION. AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEY LOOK TO MOSTLY BE
CONTAINED TO OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS WITH THAT TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT SETS UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AT 700MB WITH THAT FIRST SHORTWAVE. WITH THE WEAK
VORTICITY STREAM ATTACHED TO THE SHORTWAVE, THE EXTRA SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON OUR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE DRY LAYER
CREATED BY THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. POPS WERE LOWERED FROM NBM
ONCE AGAIN AS MODEL SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A PRETTY DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE DESPITE BEING SATURATED IN THE MID LEVELS. AROUND NIGHTFALL
WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO HIT THE GROUND AS RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE AROUND 65 PERCENT. WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
COMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE IS EVEN LESS PROJECTED MOISTURE
THAN THE FIRST. THE NBM POPS WERE KEPT AS THEY ONLY POPS THAT WERE
IN THIS TIME PERIOD WAS LOW POPS FOR THE SIERRA MADRES. EVEN WITH
THE DECREASE IN THE 700MB JET DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS STILL A
RISK FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND MIN RH
VALUES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 11,000 AND 20,000FT. THERE IS
A POSSIBLY OF FOG TONIGHT THAT COULD AFFECT KAIA, KBFF, AND
KCDR. THE 00Z TAF WILL MENTION FOG IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
STARTING PAST THE TAF PERIOD AT AROUND 0Z TUESDAY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL START TO BE A CONCERN AS THE MOUNTAIN WAVE STARTS TO
DEVELOP TO KICK OFF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ106-110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
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